Jeff: CCI(13) is one of the leading indicators in BNS. If you look at CREAF in a very short-term BNS chart, you can see how it's still up along with all the other indicators. In the BNS template, it's the white line in the second window. It usually turns before MACD, and Bill Sandusky has said that he waits for MACD to confirm CCI's move up or down. So far, neither CCI nor MACD has turned down.
Another leading indicator in BNS is the Chaikin oscillator, and that hasn't turned down yet either. Usually, the Chaikin oscillator and CCI are among the first to turn down.
But if you look at CCI in a longer-term chart with just price and CCI, you can see that CCI is bound to turn down soon. It's over 300, and the stock looks overbought.
CCI isn't a long-term indicator, though, and even if it turns down, that doesn't mean the run is over; it could just mean a pullback. One encouraging sign is that AvgPrice 1 isn't that high. You can see how much higher it's reached during other run-ups in the stock's history. But some breakouts end before AvgPrice 1 gets very high, so you can't rely on that.
An encouraging sign is that DNS is at 8 (yes, I know that's not part of BNS, but I cheated). Also, Dahl has turned up again. For a longer-term sell signal, it might be better to use DNS and Dahl, rather than CCI or BNS. You could watch for when StochRSI hits 70 on the way down, too. Right now, it's just touching it on the way up.
If the stock does pull back soon, I think you could see 25 again, before CREAF goes a lot higher -- and maybe even 23 1/2. And if worst comes to worst, perhaps even 22.
But whaddo I know? |
