Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biomatrix (BXM) Looking Great

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To: chirodoc who wrote (99)	9/28/1997 11:29:00 AM
From: John McCarthy	of 569

chirodoc One important item is missing from these numbers: (millions) Q1-97 Q2-97 Q3-97 (Sept) ----- ---- ----- Licenses Fees: Bayer 3.0 -0- -0- Wyeth-Ayerst -0- 3.2 12.0 ----- ---- ----- Total License Fees 3.0 3.2 12.0 Product Net Sales 2.2 1.8 2.0 ----- ---- ----- Total Revenue 5.2 5.0 14.0 ----- ---- ----- COGS 0.9 0.6 0.7 R&D 1.4 1.5 1.5 G&A 1.5 1.9 2.0 ----- ---- ----- Total Costs 3.8 4.0 4.2 ----- ---- ----- Operating Earnings 1.4 1.0 9.8 ----- ---- ----- Other Inc. .2 .2 .2 ----- ---- ----- EBT 1.6 1.2 10.0 ----- ---- ----- Inc. Tax Prov. -0- -0- -0- ----- ---- ----- EAT 1.6 1.2 10.0 ----- ---- ----- ----- ---- ----- E.P.S .13 .11 .89 ----- ---- ----- ----- ---- ----- I don't know the size of the Inc. Tax Prov. - if any - for the 3rd Quarter. They were -0- in Q1 , $61,000 in Q2 , and I cannot guesstimate what they will be in Q3. Better company Short Term?: -------------------------- ANIK! AHP has a lock on the USA via BIOX. I would be shocked if Bayer did not sign a deal with ANIK. Bayer wants to play, USA is biggest, richest market. What I don't know is Bayer's sales force in USA. ANIK/Bayer could always fight BIOX/AHP on price point of product. So, assuming ANIK gets thru Phase III, I think ANIK is the better short term play. In any event: Somebody is going to sign with them! This market is way to big to ignore. Please ask Eduardo what he thinks about Bayer as a possible signee with ANIK? Thanks. Better company Long Term?: -------------------------- I am long BIOX. My price target is $60. Its real simple: (1) Sign a China partner. (2) Ship about $12.0 mil of product (Synvisc) in the 4th qtr. (3) 4th Qtr. FDA sign-off on Hylaform (skin wrinkle thingie). Plays into demographics of USA. (4) RIGHT NOW Hylashield would be a NO BRAINER in MALYASIA. But I am not sure BIOX is focused on getting a good, international distributor for this because their plate is full. (5) Announce Phase I trials for Adhesions product. (6) Dr. Endre A. Balazs is a scientist, first and foremost. Regards, John McCarthy I still think Bayer will buy into China thru BIOX in some capacity. They have already signed an agreement with BIOX for $8.0 mil. of which BIOX has thus far booked $3.0 mil.

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