Upside targets..Some fun I am passing on FWIW...
I have been posting, since last Spring, periodic updates of what I have referred to as "upside targets", based on the discussion of "Ratio Analysis" in F&P. However, it has been called to my attention that my calculations may have departed from the basis of calculation set forth in F&P in that I used ratios between percentage changes rather than ratios between simple absolute numbers of the length of waves. Accordingly, I have done another set of calculations to correct that fault..
To repeat, I am trying to apply the following principle:
Ratio analysis has revealed ....relationships which occur more often than not: 1) Wave five is related by the Fibonacci ratio to the net advance from the beginning of wave one to the top of wave three.
I am applying this principle to my own presumed EW count since the Sept 2002 low, assuming three waves up had been completed in early 2004, and that a 5th wave up began in Aug 2004. If these assumptions are not correct, then, of course, my estimated "upside targets" fails, are also incorrect.
Also important to note that it is not possible to determine in advance the applicable Fib ratio. As one is applied and exceeded by the market, then the next higher ratio would come into play. In this sense, the "targets" might better be considered "next possible upside targets....(I have dropped the 0.50 ratio, and am using only the strict Fib ratio 0,382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, etc...)
Here are my new, revised "targets"...showing, for now, only the results of applying the first three ratios:
$DWC...11,833.77, 12,800.79...both exceeded...next target 14,366.04 (today's close 13,914.28)
$SPX...1211.46, 1304.58...both exceeded..next 1455.32 (today 1385.72)
$INDU..11,066.46, 11,905.48..both exceeded..next 13,263.54 (today 12,176.54)
$COMPX...2150.14...exceeded..next 2396.84, 2796.16 (today 2384.94)
$NDX...1593.86...exceeded...next 1774.22, 2066.15 (today 1749.75)
QQQQ...40.70...exceeded....next 44.24, 51.59 (today 43.03) |
