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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 328.51

+1.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (8270)	9/28/1997 2:39:00 PM
From: davesd	of 70976

Tito, is a recent post I mentioned the possible slowdown due to transition....the other major transition is going to be Dual Damasene..this is another area that is starting to get alot of attention and product development. As these new technologies develop, customers will be hesitant to be the first, but will also be hestiant to invest in current technology only to have it go obsolete in a couple of years. Once these new techonologies get proven in production....then we will have another phase of rapid growth for Semi tool companies..... Also, another thing to be aware about is that as these technologies change, other companies have a chance to leapfrog over AMAT and other current market leaders in certian areas....CMP and the recent IBM copper story are examples. AMAT has the lead in several areas today and it's very hard for smaller companies to break into AMAT's strong hold....however as new areas develop were AMAT does not have products or is behind....other companies can establish a dominating presence, IPEC, SFAM are examples. AMAT has a huge R&D budget and I'm sure that they are working on all these new technologies...I guess we just have to wait and see if they or someone else gets there first. 300mm at .25u/.18u and Dual Damascene are the major new technologies. Would you build a new multi-Billon fab in 1998/99 when these new advanced technologies maybe available in 2000/2001?? I'm sure alot of manufactures will be pondering this question. dave

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