Will Hillary waffle on Iraq?:Results Give Clinton and McCain Food for Thought on the Future
By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, November 9, 2006
Tuesday marked not only the end of Election 2006, but also the beginning of Election 2008.
Democrats romped this year, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), who polls say is the party's front-runner for president, learned that her positions on Iraq might be an electoral handicap, analysts said. And, they said, while the Republicans were set back severely, the GOP's leading presidential contender, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), was handed another reason to think his reputation as a maverick has its advantages.
Clinton voted to allow the president to go to war in Iraq and long defended that view. Although she turned into an opponent of the president's war policy last year, the party's liberal wing -- which played a key role in inciting the Democratic wave that swept through Congress this year -- has not forgiven her for the delay.
McCain, on the other hand, was a much-sought-after GOP surrogate on the campaign trail because he was widely accepted as independent of his party and President Bush in particular.
How they and other potential presidential aspirants were perceived during the campaign has been important because the midterm elections were always about more than electing people to Congress and governors' mansions. They were also opportunities for aspiring presidents to gain allies around the country to help them with their quests for the White House.
During the two-year midterm election cycle, McCain attended 346 events and raised more than $10.5 million on behalf of Republican candidates across the country. Clinton, who stayed close to home to campaign for her own reelection, still managed to raise more than $21 million for Democratic candidates and headlined 131 events in 51 cities.
Despite her travels, on Tuesday Clinton clobbered her Republican challenger, John Spencer, by garnering 66.5 percent of the vote. In 2000, she won with 55 percent.
She also showed this year that she could attract relatively conservative voters who largely shunned her the last time -- the kind of voters she would need to win a general election for president. She won 61 percent of the vote in rural Upstate New York, compared with the 48 percent she got in the region six years ago. She also lured the votes of 64 percent of the people who identified themselves as independent this year, up from 46 percent in 2000, according to exit polls.
Her success in moving her image to the right, however, appears to have come at the price of losing some support from the activist left wing of her party. Critics from that part of the political spectrum have lambasted her for not moving sooner and with enough vigor against Bush's policies in Iraq.
Democratic pollster and analyst Mark Mellman said the midterm results served as a reminder to Clinton that she must be careful to highlight her opposition to the war in order to avoid alienating a sizable number of Democrats. "She's the 800-pound gorilla in this race, and the Iraq issue could cost her 100 pounds, maybe," he said. But he added, "700 pounds is still a pretty big gorilla."
Clinton also got some high-profile help gathering political backers around the country: her husband the former president. "President Clinton was extraordinarily successful and racked up a large number of chits from Democrats who were awfully grateful to him," Mellman said. Bill Clinton made about 100 campaign stops in more than 31 states.
Republicans may have lost control of the House, and perhaps the Senate, but McCain was able to mine some good news from the rubble. One of the secrets to the Democrats' success was winning over independents and moderates, exit polls showed. McCain has long been seen as a champion of independents; in the 2000 GOP primaries for president, that trait proved to be a liability, but it may now be a benefit.
"After a year in which independents determined the outcome of the election, maybe Republicans will be more interested in nominating a candidate in 2008 that plays well with moderates and independents," said Jon McHenry of the Republican polling firm Ayers McHenry & Associates.
On the other hand, the virulently anti-Washington mood of voters this year might create a long-term problem for Capitol Hill veterans such as McCain. Seeking the White House in 2008 "will be tough sledding for someone with a Washington address," predicted Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) -- a non-Washingtonian who might seek the nomination himself.
Plenty of politicians from inside and outside the Beltway used the midterms to test the waters. Former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) traveled to 39 states. Gov. Bill Richardson (N.M.) raised $13 million for fellow Democratic governors. And Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) kept in close touch with lots of Democratic candidates, especially in what he jokingly called "random places" such as Iowa and New Hampshire -- the first-in-the-nation caucus and primary states in 2008.
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