Tero, what are you talking about?
Where did you get this 32% penetration number? Read my post again. I was responding to cellular market share by country where you claimed Europe will still be the largest market. 32% is EMCI's estimate of US's percent of the world market, not domestic penetration here.
Your post is so full of your personal guesses which are, lacking a better word, quite juvenile. Let me try another angle to illustrate my point. I looked at ERICY as a candidate to buy. What concerned me are:
1. ERICY is the only telecom giant that has committed to stand by the old GSM, effectively shutting them out of the CDMA IS-95 market completely. All competitors, namely LU, MOT, NOKA, Nortel went both ways. Notice I did not even mention QCOM because it is not big enough yet to be ranked with the others, at the moment.
2. ERICY now is claiming 3rd generation w CDMA etc etc. The tide has been turned. Just like it was up to QCOM to prove that CDMA will work, now it is ERICY's turn to come up with something that works.
3. GSM is a matured market in Europe. Global expansion is going to face CDMA competition everywhere. That is what I meant by GSM, and especially ERICY, having lost the war.
Now look at the big picture. ERICY, instead of having a percentage of the entire cellular market, just got their market cut in half. Sounds like you agree that the analog market is heading to the tech history books so ERICY will be losing whatever revenue they generate via analog now.
For the next 2-3 yr, the new GSM/CDMA war is going to have battle fronts all over the world. Everything I read led me to belief that CDMA has an edge. We may see some definitive results as early as this Christmas season.
As for the next generation w-CDMA, QCOM and others are not sitting still, waiting for ERICY to come up with something. For my money, I will rather bet on the QCOM camp rather than the ERICY camp. QCOM brought CDMA to commericial deployment while ERICY, as recent as a few yrs ago, claims that CDMA doesn't work. What have ERICY done to convince a prudent investor that they will come up with the "winning" next generation telecom strategy?
Trying to make a direct comparison, the risk reward ratio clearly favors QCOM. As for investment, I rank LU, Nortel, MOT and NOKA all superior to ERICY.
Finally, I would just like to suggest that you approach this subject with more of an open mind. Most of us are investors, not CDMA evangelists (except Maurice and qdog, we don't quite know what they are yet).
Ramsey |
