"the question is how fast and if we can do anything positive as we execute the strategy."
Define "positive".
Do you mean stop much of the violence and our people being killed? That is pretty easy. Use the Elroy plan, partition the country into three parts, Kurdistan, Shiastan and Loserstan. Accept that Shiastan is going to go to a theocracy and under the influence of Iran. Accept that when the partition is made, foreign arabs and a lot of Sunnis in Shiastan are going to die. Accept that we will lose all those permanent bases we have poured billions into. We promise, and carry through on those promises, to help Shiastan to repair and develop their oil infrastructure again. We also offer to help out any way we can.
Under agreement with Turkey, Syria and Iran, we withdraw to Kurdistan. We promise to protect the Turkmen in Kurdistan and watch the borders to make sure that there aren't any groups in Kurdistan doing cross border attacks and infiltrations into Syria, Iran or Turkey. Kurdistan should accept that with not too many problems. Try to recoup some of the original plan my encouraging Kurdistan to expand on being a democracy and making sure the income from the oil fields doesn't wind up in the hands of the few. Make sure that Kurdistan doesn't turn into the land of no bid contracts and there isn't huge chunks of money that disappear unaccounted for. A democracy is hard to build when corruption is rampart. One of many reason why Iraq as a whole doesn't stand a chance.
So what about Loserstan? They will have to be isolated. At some point, the Sunnis there are going to realize that they are cut out of most of the pie and they aren't going to be happy. al Queda and the others will probably celebrate their victory until the residents realize what happened and who help push that particular ball through the goal. Then they die. But Shiastan and Kurdistan is going to have to be protected from Loserstan attempts to try a do over. Their only hope is for Kurdistan and Shiastan to become prosperous so the Loserstan people can drive cabs and flip burgers for them. It won't be what they hoped for, but...
So the results shake out as follows. Good chance of Kurdistan being a prosperous, peaceful country and maybe even with something we could recognize as a democracy. Good chance of Shiastan being ok, albeit likely with a theocratic government under the sway of Iran. If we play our cards right and with a great deal of luck, Shiastan could eventually go the same way as Kurdistan if we can maintain ties and can encourage a decent middle class. Loserstan looks to be a proto-Palestine in the making, regardless of what happens. Two out of three ain't bad.
And maybe, just maybe, we will learn the skills we need for nation building. It is going to come up again, although hopefully not as a choice on our part other than the need to step in and pick up the pieces.
Now this will only be possible if Poppy's crew is in control and the neocons have been marginalized. There are too many places where they would screw this up. |
