Perhaps; but I think it likely that the real reason for this change is that net adds is an absurd metric to use as a standalone item.
Well, if you're in the subscriber business, and your selling your company as a growth story, then net adds is exactly the kind metric that you want to get out as soon as possible. Thi is exactly why both companies have been running to the press release in the first several years of their commercial launch announcing their net adds.
As happens in all subscriber models, at some point.. Your growth deminishes as CHURN kills your growth.. If you are unable to achieve a profitable enterprise before your growth tapers off.. You are left with a company slowely burning up the cash. And soon your Cash Cow.. Just becomes a Cow.
XM has, from the outset, maintained that obtaining subscribers isn't a huge problem for them
The problem is KEEPING THEM.. I mean.. throwing some radios in new cars gets you "subscribers:.. So I agree that this in not a HUGE Problem.. But, getting subscribers from the highly compeditive retail market is another story.. This is why I haven't been able to figure out how your and your Bunk Mate kovachs came up with that cockamamey concept about OEM CPGA being higher than retail.. Even your boys at XM stated that they want to concentrate on the lower cost adds in the OEM markets. The analyists even asked if XM had given up on the retail market. In which they replied that they haven't.. But, were more interested in adding "cost effective" subscribers.. And that they were going to concentrate in the OEM arena to accomplish this.. So I guess you own boys proved that you and your PJ Party friend were dead wrong on your cost ananlysis.
This idiot Jim Cramer is a perfect example. Last week, he said this:
LOL!! Don't get me started on that clown.. Blah, Blah, Blah Next thing you know.. maybe we can get George Gilder on his show also..
f our net adds arent' what people are expecting, they damned well OUGHT to withhold the data until the full story can be told.
Well, I think I said that this is probably what I would do if this were the case. But, this is only proving the "popsicle stand" concept. Growth is slowing at 7.5 million subs.. Not at 15 million subs. Next thing to watch for is a slight uptick in CHURN rates, followed by a downtick in ARPU. Like they said in their CC.. It's cheaper to keep a subscriber than to acquire a new one. So that will probably means"highly discounted" retention rates to keep users aboard.
Like I have said many times on these threads.. With most subscriber models.. The pot of gold is just over the next hill.
And so it goes,
PCSTEL |
