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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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From: Rarebird11/13/2006 9:56:26 AM
   of 26251
 
Market Fragments:

The short term picture is mixed. The market (NYSE COMPOSITE) has been moving within a trading range since late October. Last week, a minor range extension to the upside was quickly neutralized by sellers. Friday's action appeared bullish from a price perspective, but money flow fell to the bottom of its range. This indicates that if the market were to be able to break out of the top of the trading range now, it would likely be an exhaustion rally fueled mostly by short sellers buying in their losing positions and destined to quickly fizzle out and fail.

Here are two possibilities:

1) Prices will continue to move sideways to consolidate the overbought condition in preparation for another rally.

2) The market is about to break out to the upside in a blaze of glory. If this occurs (which I doubt), it suggests that a top of some significance could be upon us rather quickly.

For traders, it's a challenging market with no trend.

A bottoming pattern has been confirmed in regard to USO so buy the dips.

Bonds may have topped last week (yields bottomed). I'll need to see further confirmation before I buy RRPIX.

The uptend in GDX continues. Buy the dips.

GLD is in a contracting triangle, the resolution of which will be a strong thrust to the upside eventually.
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