Good article, but I have to wonder if the comparison between Windows 3 vs. Mac System 5 (or was it 6) and Zune vs. iPod is valid. Back then the Mac was way more expensive than the IBM PC. All the CEOs, supported by their accountants, intuitively chose the PC--it was a budget no-brainer.
There have been arguments that the Mac's early slogan "the computer for the rest of us" backfired by coming across as elitist and turned people off. While some may have felt excluded, Windows won the desktop battle because of price. Once it got the attention of Big Business, Microsoft was guaranteed a landslide victory. After that, no matter how cheap or good Macs became, the switching costs out of Windows were so prohibitive that Windows' continued dominance was assured.
As previously discussed on this board, the iPod is a personal device, not a business machine. In this case looks, image and ease of use count a lot. I can't imagine anyone who can afford luxury car to pick a Yugo for their personal use. Surely such a person would be in the minority. Anyway, iPods are nowhere as expensive as the early Macs as far as MP3/personal video players go. So MSFT's advantage of being the cheaper alternative (as was the case with Windows) is not there. If it was really MSFT's intention to dilute and commoditize the MP3 player market, surely it would have gone for the $79 crowd and not bothered with the $249 release.
Then there's the logic that if Xbox can beat PS (which remains to be seen, IMHO), Zune might do the same, after all they're both made by the same team. There are a couple of reasons why this may not be the case here. First, game consoles have a much smaller audience. And I daresay this audience is quite easy to figure out--the faster, the cheaper, the better. It's basically a toy, not a personal device. Second, Xbox's achievement has been greatly aided by Sony's own missteps. Curiously enough, no article I've read so far has commented on this issue when citing Xbox's increasing sales. I guess what I'm saying is that AAPL is no bumbling Sony. If AAPL does trip up and lose market share to Zune, well then, is it because of MSFT's superior skill and brilliant positioning, or just its good luck?
Finally, as far as old people go, we've got to ask Don if he might prefer a Zune over an iPod for reasons of legibility ;)
-we- |
