More possible flooding in W. Washington
Here we go again: More heavy rain in the forecast
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Story Published: Nov 14, 2006 at 11:21 AM PST
Story Updated: Nov 14, 2006 at 1:19 PM PST
By Scott Sistek
SEATTLE - Our feast or famine in the rain department is sticking with "feast" again this week as yet another strong storm heads for the Pacific Northwest, promising gusty winds and heavy rains that could send some rivers over their banks again, although nowhere near the magnitude they went over last week.
The storm will begin to move inland overnight, spreading clouds our way first, then rain toward dawn Wednesday. This system has once again tapped into some warmer, tropical air, meaning not only will we have to deal with heavy rain -- as much as 1-3 inches in the lowlands and 2-5 inches in the mountains within 12-18 hours -- but high snow levels up around 8,000 feet. That will allow the rain to just runoff into the rivers instead of sticking to the hillsides as snow.
The good news is that there are three differences to this storm than the one that set all the records last week: size, speed, and temperature. This storm is geographically smaller than the Nov. 6 storm. It's also moving faster. So instead of the 36-hour drenching we took last week, this storm should only last 12-18 hours and any flooding that occurs should be minor. Also, the snow levels, while still very high, will be about 2,000 feet lower than Nov. 6, alleviating a little extra pressure on the rivers.
Overall, a FLOOD WATCH is in effect for rivers in Whatcom, King, Lewis, Mason, Pierce, Snohomish and Thurston Counties. The most likely rivers that would go over flood stage are the Skokomish, Tolt, Snoqualmie, White and Chehalis Rivers, but again, flooding will be minor. The Cowlitz and Cedar rivers are already over flood stage due to dam releases and will likely stay that way.
The Nooksack, Skykomish, Satsop and Snohomish rivers are going to get close to flood stage, and might go over a little bit, causing some minor localized flooding as well.
It'll be windy again too
This storm will also bring another round of gusty winds to the area. This storm is more "traditional" in the November wind category than the Monday morning storm in that the winds this time will be most felt along the coast and Northwest Interior (Everett north to the border, and west to Port Townsend, including Island and San Juan County.)
A HIGH WIND WATCH is in effect for the coast and Northwest Interior from late Tuesday night into early Wednesday afternoon.
South winds of 35-45 mph gusting as high as 65 mph are possible along the coast, and up to 60 mph in the Northwest Interior.
In the Central and Southern Puget Sound area, we'll get a shot of gusty winds to about 30-40 mph when the front passes Wednesday afternoon, but they're expected to only last a few hours.
What about cross-mountain travel?
This system will be warm enough that it'll be heavy rain, not snow, that falls in the passes Wednesday. There could be some occasional avalanche control delays, but the roadways should be bare and wet. Snow levels do quickly come back down to below pass level by Thursday, dropping to 2,000 feet with more snow showers in the forecast.
Does this ever end?
Long range forecasts show a break for Thursday through Saturday, with just light scattered showers, but then show yet another system similar to the one coming in Wednesday for Sunday.
How wet has it been?
We're still on pace to shatter Seattle's all-time wettest month. Right now, we're at 11.18" of rain, just behind the 11.62" record for November, set in 1998. Overall, this is, so far, the 5th wettest month ever and we're closing fast on No. 1 of 12.92" set in January of 1953.
Incidentally, No. 3 on that list is January 2006. This marks the first time in Seattle's recorded history that we've had two months in the same year with more than 10" of rain.
Of course, those in Forks are thinking: "Eh, big deal." That city *averages* over 14" of rain every November.
But it does go to show the "feast or famine" with rain this year. 2006 will go down as having two of the wettest five months in Seattle's history, as well as the driest summer ever. |
