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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (74069)	11/15/2006 8:54:17 AM
From: redfrecknj	Read Replies (2) of 110194

via Between the Hedges: "The Saudi Tadawul Index fell another 5% today and is testing recent lows. Comex copper inventories surged another 4% and are near nine-month highs. Pension and other investment funds poured $110 billion into commodity indexes over the last 12 months, double their 2005 investment, according to a recent American International Group report. Notwithstanding this record infusion of capital and numerous potential upside catalysts, the CRB Index is down 2% over the last year, down 7% year-to-date and down 16% over the last six months. I continue to believe most commodities will fall to levels recently thought unimaginable during the next substantial global downturn." On oil: Middle East benchmark crude oil prices may drop below $50 a barrel over the next few years as Saudi Arabia and other nations boost output to supply expanded refining capacity, Nippon Oil said. A possible slowdown in demand growth led by China may contribute to lower Oman and Dubai oil prices, said Naoaki Tsuchiya, general manager of the overseas business division at Nippon Oil, Japan biggest refiner. In contrast to a widely discussed theory that world oil production will soon reach a peak and go into sharp decline, a new analysis of the subject by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) finds that the remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels -- three times as large as the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the theory’s proponents -- and that the “peak oil” argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.

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