CERA tries very hard; they consult for the industry. The big news here is that they have actually copped to PO. First time they acknowledge it. They don't tell you we are already at the plateau,tho. We'll never get to 90MBPD; maybe not even 86.
Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down? -- Our Response to CERA
Posted by Dave Cohen on Thursday November 16, 2006 at 9:01 AM )
With the release of Why the "Peak Oil" Theory Falls Down — Myths, Legends and the Future of Oil Resources by Peter M. Jackson, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) attempts to cast doubt on the credibility of those with imminent, empirically-based concerns about our future oil supply.
CERA's "Decision Brief" requires a response because since 1870, the health of the world's economies haved hinged on a secure, dependable and growing flow of "conventional" oil. Their forecast, shown in Figure 1, predicts that the oil supply will continue to grow and sustain economic growth.
Figure 1 — Click to Enlarge
We shall have much more to say about CERA's forecast later. For now, it is sufficient to note that CERA's analysis is lacking. The world's oil supply will not continue to grow to meet ever-rising global demand, and worse, the consequences could irrevocably damage global economies. Such an outcome would have harmful effects on people's lives. So, this debate is not "academic" — much depends on a correct analysis of the future oil supply.
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