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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (74227)11/16/2006 6:35:53 PM
From: gold$10k  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
CG,

Looking at a chart of the markets from fall of 1999 to spring of 2000, it looks to me like deja vu all over again. I wouldn't be surprised to see SPX and NASDAQ reach their highs from that period for a spectacular double top.

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Nothing succeeds like success and IMO Da Boyz on Wall Street are pulling out all the stops to maximize their last big Xmas bonus for a while and of course the investor class loves it. So to hell with reality... at least as long as its profitable to do so. IMO, the bears who are getting killed (I have a few bruises) were smart enough to recognize the underlying reality, but not smart enough to see the trading realities.

There was an attempt to take the market down in January, 2000, but the market leader NASDAQ shrugged it off and finally gave a clear sell signal on the weekly chart a few months later. I've heard that 40% of the entire stock market gain over the past 70 years has occurred from the two days prior to Thanksgiving through the first four trading days of January, so it makes sense to me to wait until that's done. It might be worth a shot to short the market a few days into January with a stop above the recent highs and if that doesn't pan out then wait for a clearer signal in March-May.

Just thinking out loud.

vt
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