Someone on the other ascend thread kicked me off since I mentioned asnd and options... also, said that he and named off a bunch of others knew a whole allot more about ascend than I did..
I told him they probably did. I just freed up a bunch of cash and started researching ascend on friday. Although I have purchased 300k worth of their prodcuts and love them.
Here's about 1/3 of what I've collected.
I might type in the other 2/3's but only if the thread wants it.
Ascend thoughts:
1. Rumor mill has tanked ascend and most network's. COMS hitting the earnings may be good sign. Ascend doesn't comment in this quite zone. This makes it worst.
2. The MAX price promotion that caught the analyst by surprise had been planned all along per HQ
3. These two alone can cause the drop we had but there are plenty more reasons.
4. 3Q in Europe is historically weak..6 weeks of vacations will do that<gg>
5. Information Systems is retooling their networks, remote access, and Internet. It's all being financed by getting their long distance carrier to drop their rate from 14 cents a minute to 7 cents a minute and local carriers are having to drop their rates 20-40% too.
6. I hope Ascend is developing all their systems. They will need it.
7. Gotta stop now, Maria Bartaroma is own.. need to find out the gossip<gg>
8. I'm back now..
9. IBES estimates that we have another great qtr. See a lot more exceeding estimates than missing it.. technology is hottest
10. Rumor is that Ascend really needs this three weeks to hit the numbers.
11. Some think that 3COM has agreed to stop using x2. They deny this.
12. Ascend sales force had to come in for training on new products (Cascade). Maybe it hurt sales.
13. Monday is almost end of Qtr..Ascend should know what's up.
14. I think Ascend wanted the downgrades and would have said something if their consensus wasn't lowered to around .30 +- .03.
15. European stds. Are different and that's slows Ascend up there. If they clear this up before Sept 30 then it's big sales..wish I knew this
16. coms and cisco are creating pricing pressure, but for now ascend has Internet advantage in the operations room . They are always my choice on ISDN too.
17. The ascend filing of July sales of $63mm and .03 earnings per share has contributed to the fall in sales. What is in all those numbers. I read a summary of this.Need to read the filing on Edgar.
18. They said August is weak too.
19. Customer demand for Internet remains out of site. Our next move is the T1 and we have a new site close to deployment and all the collaborative processes to customers via Internet.
20. There is some concern on high end MAX TNT and 56k on delays.
21. Everen seems high on Ascend but the ones that move a stk are Goldman Sachs, AG Edwards, and Alex Brown. Everen says Europe is weak but USA on target. Goldman Sachs see .33 3Q and .35 for 4Q for .40
22. The analyst disagree on Ascend. So, if they do disappoint but have good forward statement count on a shaky open after earnings but it may not tank.
23. Selz sees cascade is great purchase. It will reduce time to market of products they need to compete. They see 60 as target on asnd next yr.
24. Market still sees USRX with the lead on 56K but IF THAT IS TRUE COMS IS STILL GIVING AWAY THE LICENSE CHEAP.
25. Ascends inventory turns are poor next to coms and cisco. Leaves them open to loses and makes me doubt they are into the latest mat's logistics systems ..ELM. I doubt their systems altogether.
26. Ascend is still trying to digest the purchases. It's rough even for great company.culture and extra resources, extra people too. Duplicate staffs in admin. And finance and planning. Feb ..Intercon, April..Whtietree, June Cascade, and cascade was buying Sahara..merger mania is rough.
27. I wonder what the impact of rule 128 is on Ascend..raise earnings in prior qtrs?? CPA care to comment.
28. Ascend admits to be nervous about the competition. They have a great gross margin 65%.
29. 34% international sales and Japanese sales leaves them open to currency exchange problems. Analysts know this and it keeps analyst guessing if they can hedge appropriately.
30. Wonder what the margins will be merging in cascade??
31. At least the one time merger cost are posted
32. Ascend is moving so fast I wonder about obsolescence in inventory.
33. Ascend cautions that distributor channels may lower margins.. this is only a could be. I think their systems are so poor that they can make allot of improvements easy with right CIO.
34. I already can see that they are not handling the systems growth well.. I'm checking to see if they are implementing ELM next week.
35. Did a software glitch hurt 2Q, there was an est. that it did by $25mm. $22mm is direct revenue and $3mm in lost sales. If so then they get some easy shipments this qtr..
36. Hope GRF and MAX TNT help margins
37. Most say that the Cascade is 1997 neutral but helps by .10 to .15 a share in 1998.
38. Valueline says that 250 work force reduction happens in admin. and finance.
39. I'm tried, more later
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