SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: mishedlo who wrote (74273)11/17/2006 12:40:55 PM
From: forceOfHabit  Read Replies (3) of 110194
 
mish,

Oil prices rose...here is a chart to prove it...Stocks rallied huge when oil rose and that chart above proves it.

Granted. Stating the obvious.

If oil was inversely correlated with the stock market that chart would not have happened. Thus it is silly to say that stocks rallied because oil fell.

An imprecise, unjustified assertion. Over what time period are we talking (see below)? Are you making an unstated assumption that correlations can't be time dependent? In addition, correlation is not the same as causation, and the debate has been about the latter not the former (see below). The evidence supplied in your first sentence is about correlation. The conclusion in your second sentence is about causation. So your "conclusion" is simply an unjustified assertion.

...you may find periods where oil appears to be correlated and periods where it is not.

Stating the obvious.

Stocks did not rally for 3 years because oil was headed up then rally for 3 more months because it was headed down. The notion is silly.

Indeed it is, which is probably why the only place it has appeared so far is in your post.

Let's recap,

Crimson Ghost says: Almost everybody credits the big drop in oil prices as being a key factor behind the strong stock rally this fall. [emphasis added]

Do you disagree?

mish replies: Yes - I disagree
Stocks rallied because sentiment got too freaking bearish is more than likely the correct answer.

foh sez: And what do you suppose drove bearish sentiment? Maybe record high gasoline prices? Maybe Goldman claiming oil was headed to $100 barrel? Just curious.

Stating the obvious, making up ridiculous straw men, and changing the subject of debate, is hardly a good way to answer a simple question. I'm still curious about why you think sentiment got so bearish in the summer. I might add, what do you think were the key factors behind the change in sentiment leading to the stock rally? The drop in oil/gas prices at the pump perchance?

foh
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News