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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Patient Engineer who wrote (3958)	9/29/1997 1:04:00 AM
From: Maxwell	of 25960

Patient Engineer: <<I think Komatsu and/or COHR are about to get some orders. Say you are the Monty analyst. >> I don't expect CYMI to forever be a monopoly in excimer lasers. They will have competition, now and in the future. As a matter of fact I welcome competitions. There is plenty of room for more than one laser maker in this business to be rich. Stepper makers would encouraged competitions so that they could have a 2nd source for their supply. But here is where the problem begins PE. It is NOT EASY to make an exicemer laser that can meet the following spec. -----------------------------ELS-5000----------EX-5000 Wavelength:-------------------248 nm------------248 nm Repetition Rate:--------------1000 Hz-----------1000 Hz Pulse Energy:-----------------10 mJ-------------15 mJ Average Output Power:---------10 W--------------15 W Spectral Bandwidth (FWHM)-----< 0.8 pm----------< 100 pm Integrated Energy Stability:(50 pulse window) ---------------------------< +/- 1%-------------<+/- 1% Gas Life:---------------------------100 million pulses or 5 days Window Service Interval:----------------1 billion pulses Expected Pulse Power Module Life:------> 10 billion pulses Expected Chamber Life:-----------------> 3 billion pulses The spec above is about as good as you can make an exicmer laser and it is good enough for production. This spec requires some down time for window service every 2 months in continuous operation. Most of the excimers (made by Lambda Physics for research used only) that my friend, a laser scientist, used for his research had very poor reliability and could never meet the above spec. It is natural for every stepper maker to have an upper hand on their suppliers, like CYMI, because you don't want your supplier to know that they meant life and death to your company. I am sure that each and everyone of the stepper company is supporting CYMER's competitors to develop an "equivalent" type of product in case CYMI doesn't deliver (Plan B). I am sure the competitor will one day perfect their prototype but whether the stepper makers would use it in their product is another question since it is a very high risk to implement a new product without any supporting data. Even if those data "look good" in the lab it "may not look so good in the field in the actual fabricated devices"! The bottom line is that CYMI will always have the upper hand on their competitors because they were there FIRST. They got a shot to be tested in manufacturing and so far they are winning acceptances. The longer it takes the competitors to get it right the stronger CYMER's infrastructure be. ASM was the first to shipped a DUV exicemer laser less than than a year ago. Those first installed machines so far performed beyond expectation. Intel is commited to Hg vapor lamp Micrascan. They had to sweat their engineers to get those things to work (ask Yousef). Micrascan III is a DUV exicimer laser. If those performed well expect them to shift to Micrascan III soon. Yes CYMI is a one product company. Professional investors don't give a damn what they do as long as CYMI is a money generating machine. If you believe this is a money generating machine then this is a one product company you need to invest your money in. Maxwell

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