>>I'm giving kosan 3 months to sell the company or partner hsp90 or I'm gone. Might even take some losses this year.<<
In this recent article, and perhaps elsewhere, Kosan has said that they will partner when they are ready to move forward with large indications. This is a little vague, but could mean when they are ready to do a registration trial for a large indication. The pivotal combo trials with Velcade addresses a large indication, and is supposed to start in 2007.
pharmadd.com
So why the three month --or less -- time limit? Seems to me that things are just getting really interesting. Anybody else think a munch by Millenium or big pharma is likely (aside from Praveen)? One player in this space -- Conforma -- is already munched. That leaves Kosan and Infinity battling for the lead, with Vernalis/NVS and Serenex trailing. With MLNM left hunting after a bigger predator swiped AnorMED from it, I think they are the most likely. I'm not sure if Glaxo and J&J's interest makes them more or less likely to munch than a pharma that doesn't have an Hsp90 program. Thoughts, anyone?
Now granted, everyone in that article is guilty of unvarnished optimism. Infinity must be banking on doing a NDA based on PII results in GIST (incidentally, that appears to be Kosan's strategy with the Velcade combo in MM). That's the only way they could beat Kosan, unless they are banking on the above trial failing. And Johnson saying Velcade will be a billion dollar market in two years, well, let's just say that most analysts would not agree:
finance.yahoo.com
Extrapolating from this, I don't see a doubling of '07 revenues as very likely, and that's what it would take for Johnson to be on target with that comment.
I need to pay closer attention; what timeline do we have for the herceptin combo? That would also be a large indication, but I assume it would be with DMAG, making partnering in that area a more distant event.
Cheers, Tuck |
