john,
I'm of the believe the stock market does it's own thing and is very often disconnected from the real economy in the short term ebbs and flows.
I certainly agree that the coupling between the market and the real economy is weak and unstable, making it difficult, even in retrospect, to point to cause and effect relationships over the short term. (By short term, in this context, I'm thinking anything under 9-12 months.)
That being said, I believe there are common factors driving both the real economy and all the financial markets (stocks, bonds, fx, commodities, you name it), and that thoughtful analysis can pick these out at least slightly more than half the time, and that substantial deviations will eventually correct. Otherwise, how could I (or anyone else) be persuaded that I have enough of an edge over the proverbial dartboard to make a living trading?
So, given your belief, would you say you are a technical trader rather than a fundamental/macro type?
foh |
