Motorola Q3 2006 Handset Sell Through and Sell-In
Moto had a record quarter in Q3 and Ron Garriques' earnings CC slides proclaimed ...
• 8th consecutive quarter of Q/Q market-share growth!
• ... and we increased global market share to 22.4%
tinyurl.com
Third party scorekeeper's don't support this. This is the 2nd quarter in the last 4 that Moto lost both sell-in and sell through share QoQ -- the 1st being Q4 2005.
Strategy Analytics (SA) pegs Moto sell-in share at 22.0%, 1½ percentage points less than Moto's own initial view. IDC has them at 21.1%.
Gartner published sell through estimates today and Moto's sell through share (20.6%) is even lower than their sell-in share.
The variance between Moto's reported sell-in v. sell-through is a sizeable 1.8m units, a 3.4% shortfall to shipments on 60% the unit volume of Nokia's and Nokia's variance was only 0.4m -- less than ½ of 1 percentage points of shipments into channels. Moto's variance isn't huge going into peak season, but it's noteworthy.
Year-on Year Motorola increased sell through share a healthy 1.9 percentage points. but Nokia increased share 2.6 percentage points.
According to Gartner, in Q3 Nokia increased its market share in every region except North America and they regained the top spot in Latin America after losing it to Motorola a year ago and Samsung bumped Motorola out of the number 2 slot in EMEA.
Contrary to Ron's gushing statements on the earnings CC and after, Gartner says:
Motorola faces a serious challenge in maintaining the momentum it established with its smash hit the Razr, a slim handset that the company says has sold more than 50 million units during the last two years. The company had hoped its smart phone, dubbed the Q, and an updated version of the Razr, called the Krzr, would buoy sales as demand for the Razr dissipates. That apparently hasn't been the case, as the Q hasn't met sales expectations, amid complaints about clunky software and a high price. The Krzr could be a similar disappointment. ... Motofone is expected to be available during the fourth quarter of 2006, according to Motorola’s Web site, but Gartner warned that it may not be available until 2007.
Q3 2006 Handset Sell Through and Share: Gartner Estimate
Q3'06 Q3'06 Q3'05 Q3'05
Units Share Units Share
===== ===== ===== =====
Nokia 88.1m 35.1% 67.2m 32.5%
Motorola 51.9m 20.6% 38.6m 18.7%
Samsung 30.6m 12.2% 25.9m 12.5%
Sony Ericsson 19.4m 7.7% 13.8m 6.7%
LG 15.0m 6.0% 13.5m 6.5%
BenQ 6.1m 2.4% 9.8m 4.7%
Others 40.2m 16.0% 37.9m 18.3%
------ ------ ------ -----
Total Units 251.3m 100.0% 206.7m 100.0%
Q3 2006 Sell-In and Share: Strategy Analytics (SA), IDC, ABI Estimates
Q3'06 SA IDC ABI
===== ====== ======= =======
Nokia 88.5m 34.5% 34.7% 36.0%
Motorola 53.7m 21.0% 21.1% 23.3%
Samsung 30.7m 12.0% 12.0% 12.5%
Sony Ericsson 19.8m 7.7% 7.8% 8.1%
LG 16.5m 6.4% 6.5% 6.7%
Others Varies¹ 18.3% 17.9% 13.4%
------- ------ ------ ------
Total Units Varies 256.2m 254.9m 245.0m
·
¹ Others: SA = 48.8m; IDC = 45.7m; ABI = 32.8m unit sell-in
Gartner's Press Release ...
tinyurl.com (Kauppalehti)
>> Moto's Share Rises, but Doesn't Gain on Nokia
Brandon Glenn
Crain's Chicago Business
November 22, 2006
chicagobusiness.com
Motorola Inc. increased its marketshare in worldwide mobile phone sales last quarter, but not enough to take a bite out of chief rival and market leader Nokia Corp.’s dominance.
During the third quarter, Motorola accounted for 20.6% of worldwide mobile phone sales, up from 18.7% a year earlier, according to Connecticut-based technology research group Gartner Inc.
Nokia increased its third-quarter marketshare to 35.1% from 32.5%.
No. 3 mobile phone seller Samsung’s global marketshare dropped slightly in the third quarter to 12.2% from 12.5%, according to the report.
Adding to Motorola’s difficulties, the Schaumburg-based company lost its No. 1 position in Latin America to Nokia for the third quarter, and it lost its No. 2 position in Western Europe and the Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa region to Samsung.
“Christmas might not be so jolly for Motorola in some markets,” according to a statement from Gartner.
But John Slack, an analyst from Morningstar Inc., said the numbers in Gartner’s report are no cause for despair on Motorola’s part.
“There’s always going to be some shift around some percentage points” with Motorola and Nokia, he said.
Motorola faces a serious challenge in maintaining the momentum it established with its smash hit the Razr, a slim handset that the company says has sold more than 50 million units during the last two years.
The company had hoped its smart phone, dubbed the Q, and an updated version of the Razr, called the Krzr, would buoy sales as demand for the Razr dissipates. That apparently hasn’t been the case, as the Q hasn’t met sales expectations, amid complaints about clunky software and a high price. The Krzr could be a similar disappointment.
“The Krzr is struggling to enjoy the same reception that greeted the Razr,” Gartner said.
However, Motorola’s fortunes could improve with the launch of its Motofone, an affordable low-end phone aimed at first-time users and consumers in emerging markets.
Mr. Slack called the Motofone “pretty compelling for a low-end phone” and predicted it would be Motorola’s “next big hit.”
Motofone is expected to be available during the fourth quarter of 2006, according to Motorola’s Web site, but Gartner warned that it may not be available until 2007.
A Motorola spokeswoman did not return a call seeking comment.
Worldwide mobile phone sales grew 22% during the third quarter to 251 million units, according to Gartner. Sales surged 55% higher in the Asia-Pacific region, led by China and India.
The research group expects fourth-quarter sales to reach 281 million units, bringing Gartner’s full-year forecast to 986 million units. ###
After a good but slightly diasaponting Q3 we'll have to see how well Moto executes in Q4.
Ron Garriques indicates things couldn't be better ...
Message 23018326
... but we shall see what we shall see.
Egads. Ron can't be all bad -- He's a fellow BU alum, albeit a few decades removed ...
bu.edu
- Eric - |
