11/27 <<from strtfr:Geopolitical Diary: Twisting the Rubik's Cube
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday that the United States is "trapped" in Iraq -- and that Iran is prepared to help to extricate it from the Iraqi "quagmire" provided that Washington changes its "bullying" behavior toward Tehran. Ahmadinejad's statements came the same day that a spokesman for Iraqi President Jalal Talabani confirmed he will travel to Tehran on Monday to discuss Iran's role in containing the violence in Iraq. Meanwhile, a top Kurdish member of the Iraqi National Assembly, Mahmoud Othman, said that while the Talabani's visit would be beneficial to Iraq, "a lot depends on the relations between the United States and Iran."
Talabani's trip to Tehran comes amid a flurry of diplomatic activity. Both the United States and Iran are having discussions with key players throughout the region, and it appears increasingly likely they will at some point meet with each other as well. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney met with Saudi King Abdullah in Riyadh on Saturday -- likely taking the Saudis, a critical component in any U.S.-Iranian dealings, into confidence on what Washington intends to offer in exchange for Iran's cooperation in stabilizing Iraq. And Jordan will host a meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Nov. 29, and Egypt will host the foreign ministers of Iraq's neighboring states Dec. 5, as they explore possible ways to contain the violence in Iraq.
Both the Arabs and the Israelis -- for different reasons -- are worried about the implications of a potential U.S.-Iranian accommodation. Naturally, the Bush administration is in quite an awkward position. In order to allay Israeli concerns about Iran's nuclear weapons, Washington could agree to yield a significant degree of influence over Iraq to Tehran. Doing so, however, would be unacceptable to Washington's allies among the Arab Sunni states, as well as Turkey.
For its part, Ankara opposes the possibility of partition for Iraq -- as Prime Minister Marouf Bakheet said Saturday in a joint statement with Jordanian King Abdullah II.
The diplomatic activity and positioning throughout the region is an important component of the complex negotiations that are crucial to both U.S. and Iranian strategies concerning Iraq. But there is a conundrum. As each of these regional pieces falls into place, what Washington needs is for Tehran to use its influence among the Iraqi Shia to reach a deal with the Sunnis in that state. The Iranians have signaled that they are willing to do this, but for a price:
1) Security for the Iranian regime
2) Recognition of Iranian influence in Iraq
3) Acknowledgment of Iran's dominance in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East.
Given that price, it would appear that achieving stability within Iraq means destabilizing the regional balance of power. Merely by engaging Tehran in direct discussions, the United States would, in a de facto sense, be empowering Iran. And Washington could not very well walk away from the table without conceding to some of Iran's demands for influence. No matter how you cut the cards, the rise of Iran as a regional power is all but inseparable from any solution on Iraq. Washington will want to limit that power, using the fine print of any political negotiations, but success is far from assured -- and the precise status of Iran ultimately may not be the most important consideration. As the results of elections in Bahrain this weekend showed, the Shia of the region are already gathering strength.
Situation Reports
1251 GMT -- AUSTRALIA, FIJI -- Foreign ministers from Pacific nations will meet in Sydney, Australia, on Nov. 31 for an emergency summit on the possibility of a coup in Fiji, the Australian Associated Press reported Nov. 27.
1246 GMT -- SRI LANKA -- An independent Tamil state is now the only option for Sri Lanka's Tamil community, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran said in his annual speech Nov. 27.
1240 GMT -- SOMALIA, ETHIOPIA -- Thousands of troops belonging to Somalia's Supreme Islamic Courts Council were deployed Nov. 26 to within nine miles of the Ethiopian border near the town of Abud-waq, The Associated Press reported Nov. 27.
1235 GMT -- CHINA -- Yang Zhengfa, a former Communist official in China's Hubei province, received a life sentence for taking bribes and misappropriating social security funds, Xinhua news reported Nov. 27. Yang embezzled $3.2 million and took $500 thousand in bribes, the Xinhua report added.
1230 GMT -- CHINA -- Nuclear negotiators from Japan and South Korea arrived in Beijing on Nov. 27 to lay out plans for the resumption of six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program, Xinhua news reported. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill planned to arrive in China later in the day.
1223 GMT -- IRAN -- Sabotage was likely not the cause of the Nov. 27 crash of an Antonov-74 military aircraft that killed at least 36 people, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Commander in Chief Yahya Rahim Safavi told Fars News Agency. At least 30 Revolutionary Guards "on a mission" to southern Iran died in the crash, the Guards said in a press release.
1217 GMT -- UNITED KINGDOM -- The United Kingdom plans to withdraw thousands of the 7,200 soldiers it has in Iraq in 2007 if Iraq's security forces increase their capabilities, British Defense Minister Des Browne said Nov. 27.
1211 GMT -- INDIA -- India conducted a successful missile interception test Nov. 27, in which one surface-to-surface Prithvi-2 missile intercepted another in the Bay of Bengal, Press Trust of India reported. The missiles were pre-programmed to have flights that intersected one another.
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