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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: epicure who wrote (32078)	11/28/2006 5:28:54 PM
From: one_less	Read Replies (1) of 541109

The culture of Iraqis for many decades has been to follow or fall into obeyance of central power. We saw 100% vote of confidence for Saddam only a few years ago because Iraqi culture does not permit contradictions to power. At the fall of Saddam a challenge was posed by the West. We can offer you a chance to follow and stand on a principled constitution and we will provide security until you can build up your own. As long as that looked viable, there was support. That support can/will evaporate as quickly as the Iraqi see the power of the National government weakening or collapsing. Early on Nationalism was tentative as there were dozens of insurgent forces attempting a rise to power along with the invasion of terrorists forces. All vying for the confidence of the Iraqi people. Each time one looked like it had potential, the whole coalition force was put at risk looking very tentative. But insurgencies were toppled in short order a few years ago. I have been writing periodically about the shadow government that is controlled by Moktada Al-Sadr (The only insurgent allowed to walk free) but until recently most people insisted he had been neutralized. When civil war becomes full blown, remaining Sunis will move to align themselves with Al-Quaida as their only strength against the Al-Mahdi force. If things are prolonged Sunis from all over the region will move in to add their strength to the conflict. If this happens Al-Quaida and the Al-Mahdi armies now seen by most as radical fringe, will be legitimized for many Muslims world wide. The victor will claim legitimacy as the Khalifate army of prophesy ... I hope not but that is one scenario, among many that have very real potential.

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