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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: aerosappy who wrote (75622)11/28/2006 7:21:21 PM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (1) of 206138
 
The data used to generate the report cover much more of the production in USA than either RJ's or Lehmans production report for the USA.

Evaluating the impact of their statistical methods on their estimates is not my strong point.

But from what I have collected over the last 5-6 years and most recently the data from the quarterly production reports and the MMS data, I think the EIA report is giving consistent data.

Compared to the quarterly reports it is a larger sample and the data comes faster.

I fill out plenty of data for the EIA so I take some comfort it what they provide from these monthly forms.

With all the transactions between E&P's it is good to take a look at the data from another sample point, because there is so much scrubbing of data required by RJ and Lehman.

My guess is that production is flat to growing modestly quarter to quarter. Going forward I think we feel the pain from the loss of rigs in the GOM and the slowdown in Canada. RJ also pointed out the rapid increase in decline rates.

But I think the weather is going to hammer us as I am not betting this cold front sticks around long and we end up with a very mild back half of December.

The same hedge funds lifting up ng playing the charts will flip positions quick as can be once they tire of the warm weather.
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