Just woke up, so haven't had a chance to
look at the 12z mm5, but it just started
flurrying here just north of Seattle, so
maybe we will pick up an inch through
this evening...and another inch or two
with the front tonight. Maybe 3" for my
house?
Up til now forecasters at my office are in
two camps: One leaning toward the mm5 and
one camp which put up a winter storm watch
yesterday. As usual, perhaps the smartest
thing is to go between.
Camp1--the 00z mm5gfs showed no snow in Seattle,
and heavy snow from Monroe, through Darrington and
such, and also just west of Hood Canal.
Camp2--A winter storm watch put up yesterday, and
spawning a dramatic headline in the Seattle Times
would imply much more snow in Seattle--but would
also cover those areas where it does not turn
over to rain as fast, the areas where the mm5
does show snow.
Correct forecast: Probably the one the dayshift
is putting out--snow advisory, winter weather
advisory, and 1-3" for much of the lowlands,
but 4-6" near Hoodsport, and the inland portion
of the north interior (the area east of highway 9
North of the metro area, and on up to the border).
I'll say 1.5" for Sea-Tac, 2" for where I live
up through Everett, only a skiff downtown, 5" for
places at elevation along Hood Canal 5" for Hoodsport,
2" for Shelton, less than an inch for Olympia.
And in the north, 4" Monroe, 5" Darrington, 2" up
in Bellingham (fastest scouring of the cold air
up there as a southerly gale starts up in the
Strait of Georgia...then works south eating the
cold air/mixing it out).
(I am not at work, so I can say what I want to
regarding the forecast from home)
Oh, and I did a little stock trading today, very
trivial, will post the results if it works out and
hide in shame of my forecast busts, and the trade
doesn't pay <g>. |
