Hi Steve, that is a very open ended question.
Couple of years ago, Dave Ray (he has since changed his name) said on this thread that the war in Iraq will lead to democracy in Iran. I told him I wish his prediction would come through.
Of course that has not happened and the reform movement in Iran completely halted and reversed with the election of the new present. Too bad!
Now Iran current leadership is in a pretty good situation because:
-Oil prices are high and they are flushed with cash
-Their arch enemy, Iraq/Saddam, that they fought and extremely bloody war with for years, had been dismantled
-Their second enemy, Taliban, which they were extremely close to start a war with in late 1999, has been dismantled
-And the current troubles in Iraq essentially give them immunity from any ground invasion by US and Britain.
-They have flexed their muscles in Iraq and are playing an increasingly influential role
I hate to admit it but the current theocracy in Iran is stronger and more stable now than it has been in the past 10 years.
Now I am going to say something that I am sure very few will agree with me. I don’t think Iran’s nuclear program is in any way a threat to US. For one thing they are decades away, if not for ever away, from having a capability to deliver a nuclear explosion to US shores. Developing a nuclear weapon that can be mounted on a missile or placed in a suitcase is not a trivial task. And of course developing ICBM is another story. And even if by some miracle they did that by lets say 2050, they are not stupid enough to use it, or provide it to a terrorist organization, were retaliation by US that will kill them all is almost a certainty.
I detest the current nuclear development and wish Iran would have a true democracy that did not oppress its people and isolate itself from the modern world by perusing what ever it is they are pursuing. But I can’t understand all the commotion about their capability to enrich low grade uranium.
My solution: Let them enrich what they want since they got to feed their nuclear plants. If they start working on a bomb that can be put in a suitcase or place on a missile, then take them out once and for all. I think in the several decades that it will take them to do this; there will be plenty of time to gather intelligence and carry what ever attack is needed. In the mean time work on million other problem that needs to be addressed in this century. Perhaps energy independency? |
