if one were to lock the door and force a recommendation from me, i would choose going big, and hope for the best, on someone else's turf, in the dark, and face down the various factions, all moving against me, even when they are working for me.
TJ,
You read the report. They clearly stated that the Sunnis lack the numbers in Iraq to directly confront and wrest power from the Shi'a dominated government. Thus, there cannot "truly" be a civil war, but rather a long lasting Sunni insurgency that will continue to plague the government and maintain Baghdad as a contested city.
What I fear most is the Iraqi Sunnis becoming so isolated from power, either by being prevented from it by intransigent and revengeful Shi'a like Al-Sadr, or seeking to widen their struggle against a perceived Iranian foothold on Arab land.
Let's not forget that, despite their religious differences, Iraqi Sunnis and Shi'a are Arabs, not Persians. The key is find a means of amplifying the actual threat (and agenda) from Persian Iran and creating unity between Sunni and Shi'a Arabs.
As for the recommendations of the ISG, it will be bi-partisan and hopefully something that both American political parties can unify around. Creating the perception of a unitied political front regarding US foreign policy in the region will go damn far, IMO, towards negating the threat from Iran and convincing the warring parties that they had better face a compromise if they want the coalition forces to leave.
Hawk |
