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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Cogito who wrote (32201)	12/1/2006 9:14:33 AM
From: JohnM	of 541118

I really have no serious way of knowing whether the levels of violence would increase or not if the US troops withdrew. Looks to me as if it could be argued either way and the forecasted data which one might use to decide is simply not available to us. My own guess, FWIW, is that US foreign policy in the ME will return, over the next three to four years, to a central focus on oil as one of the cornerstones of the global economy. No doubt some sort of multilateral agreements could be reached for such. I suspect that means a long term US troop commitment to the ME, based in some combination of the Kurdish area of Iraq and the small gulf states. It's also likely to mean more emphasis on settling the Palestinian/Israeli conflict on terms that promote stability rather than any sort of perceived justice. Talk of democratic regimes throughout the ME will disappear. I suspect the US public has given up on Iraq. As for parallels with Vietnam, I think we are going to be talking for a very long time as to which was worse. And whether Bush fashioned the worst foreign policy in US history. It's, of course, hard to pin Vietnam on any one president since it's a Kennedy/Johnson/Nixon legacy.

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