Working on empty: Planning for oil's end
No more fuel - After a Portland group persuades the city to create a task force, scenarios of crises emerge
Monday, December 04, 2006
STEPHEN BEAVEN
The prophets of gloom meet every Wednesday in a church basement to plan for the end of oil as we know it.
Seated in folding chairs under fluorescent lights, the members of Portland Peak Oil share tips about switching to propane, planting vegetable gardens and harvesting fruit and nuts from local trees in case the food supply goes south along with affordable gasoline.
Thanks to their lobbying, the city of Portland is planning, too. In fact, Portland is one of only a handful of cities confronting head-on the predictions of a looming oil shortage and ballooning gas prices.
A task force that city commissioners created in May at the urging of Portland Peak Oil is nearly finished with a report aimed at helping Portland ease its addiction to oil.
The task force is looking at three oil shortage scenarios, according to a preliminary report released last week. The primary focus is a long-term, manageable transition in which prices rise at a gradual pace. The committee also is looking at a sudden disruption that causes an emergency and a shortage that results in a societal collapse.
No one, of course, is certain about when the world's oil supply will peak or if it's happened already. Predictions have ranged from 1995 to near 2030. Some disbelievers think the whole idea is bunk. Still, the peak oil theory has picked up steam in recent years, locally and nationally, thanks to disruptions in the U.S. oil supply after Hurricane Katrina and political insecurity in the Middle East.
In Portland, advocates for conservation say the city must make changes now for a less painful transition from a car-dependent economy to a model that relies less on oil. They're not talking about Armageddon. But their vision of the future is enough to make you buy bus tickets, bake bread and can some pickles.
"Our entire cultural system, including food, is based on the assumption that we will always have inexpensive and plentiful fossil fuel," said Pam Leitch, a founding member of Portland Peak Oil.
"If the peak oil theory is correct, that assumption will no longer be valid and we'll have to change much of what we do." PEAK OIL B2
oregonlive.com |
