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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: shades who wrote (74781)12/4/2006 4:38:52 PM
From: RJA_  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Shades: Some thoughts.

1. None of us know for sure what the future will bring. We are all doing educated guesses based on our experience, or knowledge from other sources.

2. You apparently don't like metals as an investment. Fine. Don't buy them.

3. My experience has been that they work for me. In the last run up I made medium to high five figures over just a few years (pretty good back then), basically approximately tripling my investment. That was pretty good. I wouldn't mind that again.

4. My experience with government indicates virtually anything can happen. The latest on the Canadian energy trusts is a good example. When government gets in a bind usually created by itself, metals can be a good conservative move. They have intrinsic value which ink printed on paper -- a government non-obligation (no mater how elaborate) does not.

5. History backs me up on #4. Read it. Particularly the French and German inflations. Argentina is a more recent example, tho I know less about it.

6. The effects of US printing IMHO have not been felt yet. If and when China/Japan and others dump their dollars, value may shrink dramatically, and can happen in very short time.

7. Metals are good protection, so is oil in the ground, so are good dividend paying oil stocks (know any??? I am looking, no Canadian royalties, please).

8. The problem exists. You may not recognize it, or may have other solutions (tho I have not seen them). Meantime IMHO bad form to belittle those who are attempting to deal with the problem, and for the most part with good results.
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