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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (25447)	12/4/2006 8:20:25 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78748

Hi Paul - I continue to hold all my drug companies even with the PFE news. I still believe that they have excellent long term value prospects and they provide good diversification to any portfolio. My annual HMO fees increased 20% for 2007 and I suspect that as the baby boomers age, the most cost effective choice by doctors will be to just prescribe more drugs. In order for the drug companies to add new drugs to their future pipe line, they will need to acquire more of the innovative biotech companies that are working on these new products. I have recently allocated new dollars to this area but they are not typical value propositions. AVI Biopharma Inc. (AVII) is one I bought a starter position in last week. They are a research company with labs located in Corvallis Oregon and generate most of their income through Federal research contracts. The company’s lead product candidate, Resten-NG, is a NEUGENE antisense drug for treating cardiovascular restenosis, or the renarrowing of a coronary artery following angioplasty. The idea is to line stints with this drug and it makes the procedure more effective. This product alone makes the company very attractive at current prices. They are also working on different types a vaccines that may have some promise too. It is hit or miss with many of these biopharmaceutical companies but perhaps with enough stub positions, I may hit the 10-20 bagger. 1) Any ideas on where to find good cheap value prospects in the health care industry? ------------------------------------------------------------- I picked up a few more shares of WON as they hit a new weekly low on lower volume. I think that the tax loss selling is now over. Their largest shareholder is CBS radio and WON stated that they have formed a committee to renegotiate their long term contract with CBS that expires in 2009. I wonder if this may involve CBS just acquiring the company and folding the different divisions into CBS. CBS has lots of money as they recently sold some of their radio assets. ------------------------------------------------------------- My largest holdings are oil and natural gas stocks but as I continue to scan low PE and high cash flow companies, many of these conglomerates continue hit my list. XOM, CVX and COP continue to look like very attractive value propositions even at their current high prices. I will be adding some more shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) on any pull back as I like their domestic holdings. I did not realize that they even mine deposits of oil sands in Canada! I missed my last chance a few month's back when it touched $55. -------------------------------------------------------------- I am also concerned about the long term prospects of the U.S. $ and the potential for it to fall relative to many of the other foreign currencies. I can only think of one way to protect my buying power (relative to the U.S. $) and that is to own companies that own hard assets (like oil) and have global exposure. Again the large oil conglomerates fit this criteria. Any value propositions that protect ones portfolio with a falling U.S. $? EKS

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