Henry,
In general I agree with your comments.
However, regarding 3Q results, my impression from trade publications is that INTC had a bone-dry July because everyone just about stopped buying, waiting for the price cuts that were both pre-announced and not effective until July 28th. Unit volume in August was tremendous, but much of it was non-MMX at dramatically reduced margins; even socket 7 MMX chips were way down in price (hence margin). September was (is) largely unknown. I am inclined to believe that 3rd Q is probably good based on positive results from Dell, Compaq and Gateway (Gateways profits were down, but their unit volume was still way up, which is all that matters to INTC). But I don't know the P II vs. Socket 7 mix, and margins on Socket 7 chips are WAY down from what they were.
Bottom line, there are too many variable here going in too many directions. Without more information -- available only to insiders -- I can't come to any bottom line conclusions, although I am hopeful for $1.00/share. I would like to hope for more, but I feel that if it were above that, we would have had a pre-announcement. |
