Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 228.62

-3.8%

1:15 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Joe NYC who wrote (219539)	12/8/2006 7:08:53 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (1) of 275872

Kind of a self squeezing for self preservation all while AMD is capacity constrained. I wonder what will happen in Q1 when AMD is no longer capacity constrained... Well.....it gets really interesting when AMD has (2) 5000W/week 65nm fabs up and running. The possibilities are staggering. Look ahead to 07 Q4. I figure the most outrageously optimistic requirement for AMD would be maybe 22 million chips that quarter (over 30% share). Assume a best case scenario whereby AMD has fab 36 at full 5000W/week capacity (likely) and the old fab maybe up to 3400W/week at 65nm and 300mm (not likely). So 8400W/week total capacity at 300mm and 65nm. Now...go 100% native quad core. At 283mm^2, there are perhaps 210 candidates per wafer. Even at only 35% yield, that's 73 good native quad core die per wafer. 8400W/week X 73 die/W x 13 weeks/Q = 8 million/Q. Let's allocate 1 million for servers, and the other 7 million for high end desktops. Of the remaining 14.9 million chips that did not yield quad core, probably 9 million will yield tri-core and maybe 5 million dual core. Mid range could be all tri core with only dual core at the very low end. That's 22 million total. This is just one scenario (probably a separate chip for mobile) but you get the picture. Am I missing something here? Why will AMD not do this? I wonder how quickly they can get the old fab converted to 300mm 65nm. Do they have the money to do it now? Man.....what possibilities. Of course, Intel would have to respond. THE WATSONYOUTH

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next