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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 251.32-3.2%3:59 PM EST
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To: smooth2o who wrote (219717)12/8/2006 5:55:39 PM
From: pgerassiRead Replies (3) of 275872
 
Smooth2o:

Because it doesn't jive with your preconceived notion of what you would like the situation to be, you reject it out of hand. What is your explanation for the slow C2D ramp?

Remember that they have enough inventory to sell more than a full quarter without producing one CPU more. They could go flat out on CMW production and use inventory to fill any production hiccups. If CMW is so good, then it should quickly supplant P4 and CD in the sales mix. Since an all CMW lineup would increase ASPs, margins and profitability, why isn't Intel going to nearly 100% CMW production. They quickly switched from 180nm Willamette to 130nm Northwood production. Crossover took about 1-2 quarters from production start (shipments). CMW is going to be much longer than that at the current ramp.

If you believe that Intel management isn't totally crazy, then there has to be a very good reason for it. Chipset shortages and idling fabs don't pass that test. The only possible explanation is that they can't ramp it any faster, even throwing large sums of money at it like they normally do, when faced with a problem. That is a very good reason for the slow ramp.

How are they ramping? Intel is going after the high end first on all three major segments. That points to a low yield product needing high margins. AMD is going after the sweet spot first on the highest volume segment. That points to a higher yield product with better margins in a capacity constrained environment.

Again, what explanation do you offer for the slow C2D ramp?

Pete
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