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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 251.32-3.2%3:59 PM EST

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To: pgerassi who wrote (219729)12/8/2006 6:59:28 PM
From: smooth2oRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
re: Again, what explanation do you offer for the slow C2D ramp?

You can't say yet. We won't find out until Q1 results. All I know is that Intel produced 6M when the target was 1M. I suspect that they're selling like hotcakes. Don't forget, they're trying to replace 160M processors and not everyone buys them. If I look in the latest Dell Business catalog I find this:

investorshub.com

So, obviously, Dell is selling a LOT of Intel processors, about the ratio to market SS.

I also view the Intel 130/90/65nm ramp charts and I see the ramps to "world class" (or at least Intel world class) is better for each later process. Not only that, but their past processes weren't to shabby so I suspect that they can profitability mfg 65nm product. Now, as some suggest, the yields on those may be going down as the process gets smaller, but the costs are also going down. Maybe that's what it takes. I suspect that same effect will happen to AMD (if they ever get their process working, b/c it's not now).

I also suspect that a lot of the inventory they have is new product since they didn't seem to know the uptake of C2D. I also suspect that they cleared the fabs by increasing P4 production b/c they wanted to be able to really crank it up if C2D was in great demand. I think the xistion turned out to be gradual, therefore a lot of inventory. I also think that Andy expected that from the CC.

The other possibility that I can imagine is that they want to get to 45 rather quickly, so clearing the fabs is not a bad idea. Maybe that's how they plan to pull in 45nm. One thing for sure, they are pulling in and going for broke. See here:

intel.com

If "microarchtectural advances" mean the difference in performance, we're all in for a rude awakening from Intel...

Smooth
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