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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (75141)	12/9/2006 5:43:39 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Well Long Island Guy I most assuredly was not predicting doom and gloom in 1998. In fact I paid off a significant portion of our house in 2000 because of Rambus. Unfortunately I did not sell it all. Furthermore I have been not been on a deflationary kick or probably even mentioned the word deflation until 2003-2004 so once again you like John Vosilla keep distorting my position beyond recognition. I really do not care what Prechter has said or done but I have on numerous occasions stated why he was wrong and in fact over 20 years too early and that has to do with K-cycles. I will admit that I was bearish on the stock market far too long during the rebound, but I will also say that I called the exact top within a month of the housing peak and the exact bottom of the US$ in 2005 within a week, when it went on a year long rally. I have also been correct about gold. I only made a single housing top call and I nailed the peak (June of 2005). If you want to say it was July or August then please feel free to moan. As for the Fed having "infinite ability to inflate in a world where the major economies run policy that is even more absurd than our own" once again it is clear that you do not understand economic reality. The Fed does NOT have "infinite ability to inflate" (not in practice). The Fed is constrained by the willingness of consumers to borrow and banks to lend just as they always have throughout history. You are of course arguing that It's Different This Time citing "financial innovation such as securitization, globalization, free capital markets". No, LongIslandGuy it is NOT different this time. "Financial Innovations" (good god you now sound like Greenspan) temporarily extended the length and magnitude of the current bubble no more no less. It is ironic that those "innovations" you are lauding will be the very thing that causes the next crash to be all the more severe. Furthermore you cite globalization when that is yet another factor (global wage arbitrage and outsourcing) that are 100% without a doubt adding to deflationary pressures. Once again you and others are 180 degrees from reality when it comes to simple economic facts. Mish

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