Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 215.20

0.0%

11:30 AM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (219875)	12/10/2006 12:54:38 AM
From: economaniack	Read Replies (2) of 275872

Sarmad, "But I think the factors I outlined are more relevant to whether AMD will clobber Intel or not." AMD is in the middle of a process ramp. They are on a 4 year old core. They have just spent 5 times their current assets to buy a company which is probably losing money. At this point I will be happy if they get to 65nm, get out ATI's new chipset and graphics core, and get the new (K8L?) core out next summer without facing a meaningful chance of bankruptcy in between. Clobbering Intel is not on my most hopeful list of outcomes. I think if things go well, they can hold server share and gain some share in notebooks which are high enough margin that they could have modest continued revenue share gains, especially if the 65nm ramp allows additional unit and especially dual core output to compensate for declining ASPs. I think at 20 AMD is priced for BAD THINGS, and only moderately horrible will be something of a relief. I really like the long term prospects for a dedicated mobile core and integrating ATI tech so if they lose a little ground in 07 but keep those things on track I will be happy. If they start actually losing money again in 07, something I don't view as terribly unlikely unfortunately, I will be unhappy. In between I think it is easy to get waaay too excited about a dime of earnings either way. e

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