Iran: The Islamic Republic's Big Vote
Summary
Iranians will vote Dec. 15 in elections for the Assembly of Experts (AoE) and municipal leaders. The AoE vote will determine the country's future domestic politics and international relations at a time when the Islamic Republic is reaching an impasse due to the advanced age of its senior cleric rulers. More important, the AoE elections and a change of guard at the top could have significant implications for a U.S.-Iranian accommodation regarding Iraq.
Analysis
Iran will hold its fourth elections for the Assembly of Experts (AoE), as well as municipal elections, on Dec. 15. Previously, only clerics have won seats in the AoE, an 86-seat body whose members serve eight-year terms.
Regardless of who gets elected and the distribution of seats between the two rival conservative blocs, the next AoE will select a new supreme leader -- the third since the 1979 founding of the Islamist regime -- upon Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death or incapacitation. Even before that happens, these elections will have significant foreign policy implications, especially regarding Tehran's bid to consolidate its influence in Iraq and its bid for regional dominance and global-player status.
The AoE appoints Iran's supreme leader, oversees his performance and can even remove him from office. Some 495 candidates filed to compete for AoE seats, but the Guardians Council -- which has the power of parliamentary oversight and vets candidates for public office -- only approved 144 candidates. This time around, competition has been opened to nonclerics and women. Candidates whose religious qualifications were in doubt were tested over their knowledge of Islam and their abilities of religious interpretation. Only one candidate passed the test; all of the women and several male AoE aspirants, including close relatives of senior ayatollahs, failed.
While the municipal elections will give the government an opportunity to strengthen its ties to the Iranian masses, the AoE ballot will determine the fate of the struggle between two rival factions within the conservative clerical establishment. It also will determine the next leader of the country, given the advanced age of Khamenei, who reportedly has terminal cancer. The outcome of the election also will affect Iranian policies regarding Iraq and the nuclear issue, and the overall future of the Iranian state.
The pragmatic conservatives, led by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the No. 2 man in the clerical regime and a member of the ultraconservative faction of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, probably will be sharing power in the new assembly. Rafsanjani, who, as the current AoE deputy chief, is second only to Khamenei in terms of influence over the Iranian political system, could assume the chairmanship of the assembly. This is especially likely since current chairman Ayatollah Ali Meshkini, who is 80 years old, is ill and reportedly wishes to step down. Other prominent leaders who are expected to win seats in the AoE are Guardians Council chief Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, former national security chief and nuclear negotiator Hasan Rowhani and Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi Misbah Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's ideological mentor.
The new AoE will play a key role in shaping Tehran's position on reaching an understanding with the United States regarding Iraq's future. Ordinarily, the clerical regime has had a unified position regarding its foreign policy objectives, with the two main factions disagreeing on the details of how to pursue these goals. Khamenei's health becomes a major concern at this point.
Khamenei took over as supreme leader from the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini, when the latter died in 1989. Despite pragmatist leanings, Khamenei has remained above factional politics to facilitate a role as arbitrator and to maintain influence on all sides. He has struck a balance between ideologues and pragmatists, and even worked with liberal clerics such as former President Mohammed Khatami and parliament Speaker Mehdi Karroubi.
Because of his tremendous influence over the Iranian political system, Rafsanjani could succeed Khamenei. He has served as parliament speaker (1980-89), president (1989-97), chairman of the Expediency Council (1989-present) and deputy chairman of the AoE (1997-present). Moreover, in October 2005, Khamenei granted Rafsanjani a wider range of powers involving oversight of all three governmental branches' implementation of a 20-year development plan drafted by the Expediency Council.
There are a number of drawbacks to Rafsanjani, however. He has previously been at odds with the Guardians Council, and also has been accused of corruption. Additionally, Rafsanjani is not known for his religious credentials, and is seen as being too close to the liberal reformist camp led by Khatami. In fact, many of his opponents blame him for bringing about the rise of the reformist movement during his two terms as president -- a rise that brought Khatami to power. Rafsanjani also is seen by some as being soft on foreign policy, especially since the Iran-Contra affair took place on his watch, and he has encouraged a pragmatic approach to the nuclear issue and the United States.
The most visible manifestation of opposition to Rafsanjani was his defeat by the noncleric and much younger politician Ahmadinejad, who previously had served only as mayor of Tehran.
Khamenei's death or incapacitation will upset the consensus-building process within the Iranian political system -- since he was appointed because of his closeness to Khomeini and served as president before becoming supreme leader upon Khomeini's death. Whether Khamenei's successor commands the same following among the pragmatists and the hardliners he has enjoyed until now, keeping the system stable, remains to be seen. Thus, the Dec. 15 vote is perhaps the most crucial election in the republic's 27-year history. |
