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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: bart13 who wrote (75137)	12/10/2006 4:16:45 PM
From: kris b	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Bart, Your findings seem to be supported by FED's Q3 2006 Flow of Funds. The rate of Credit Growth is slowing in the real economy, but expanding in Financial. -THE TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT GROWTH RATE IS DOWN 10%, FROM $ 820 BILLION (7.8% ANNUALIZED GROWTH) IN Q2 TO $755 BILLION (7.1% ANNUALIZED GROWTH) IN Q3 -TOTAL NON-FINANCIAL CREDIT EXPANDED AT 6.7% (SAAR), THE SAME AS Q2 -TOTAL HOUSEHOLD BORROWINGS (CONSUMERS) GROWTH RATE IS DOWN 35% TO 6.8% (SAAR) RATE OF GROWTH IN Q3 FROM 9.2% (SAAR) GROWTH IN Q2. -TOTAL BUSINESS BORROWING GROWTH RATE IS DOWN 9% TO 7.7% (SAAR) RATE OF GROWTH IN Q3 FROM 8.4% (SAAR) GROWTH IN Q2 -LOCAL GOVERNMENT BORROWING GROWTH RATE IS UP 50% TO 9.3% (SAAR) RATE OF GROWTH IN Q3 UP FROM 6.6%(SAAR) GROWTH IN Q2. -CREDIT MARKET BORROWINGS RATE OF GROWTH GROWTH AS PER FED'S AGGREGATE "DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SECTORS" IS DOWN 88% TO 5.6% (SAAR) RATE OF GROWTH IN Q3 FROM 10.5%(SAAR) GROWTH IN Q2. -TOTAL MORTGAGE DEBT GROWTH RATE IS DOWN 9% TO 8.4%(SAAR) RATE OF GROWTH IN Q3 FROM 9%(SAAR) GROWTH IN Q2. -HOME MORTGAGE BORROWINGS GROWTH RATE IS DOWN 30% TO 7.4%(SAAR) RATE OF GROWTH IN Q3 FROM 9.6%(SAAR) GROWTH IN Q2 -GSE BALLANCE SHEETS CONTRACTED AT THE RATE OF 3.7% IN Q3 A REVERSAL FROM 7.1% RATE OF GROWTH IN Q2 -THE NEW LIQUIDITY PUMP IS FINANCIAL SPHERE/SECURITY FINANCE (FED FUNDS AND REPOS, FUNDING CORPS, BROKER/DEALERS ASSETS). IN A NUTSHELL LIQUIDITY SWITCHED FROM FINANCING THE REAL ECONOMY TO PROPPING UP FINANCIAL/SPECULATIVE ECONOMY. THIS SUPPORTS RUSS'S THEORY THAT THE PIG MAN ARE FEASTING AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SOCCER MOM'S OF THIS WORLD. CAVEAT, I DIDN'T SEE THE ABSOLUTE NUMBERS OF THESE CATEGORIES SO I DON'T KNOW HOW BIG THE RELATIVE IMPACT OF THEM IS ON THE ECONOMY. I WILL DIG OUT THE NUMBERS SO WE CAN SEE THE IMPACT.

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