I am looking to the country under three different perspectives now:
One sector agribusiness and materials can provide growth 2 to 2.5%. BY itself, it can' answer to a growth of 4 to 5%.
That because the service sector is big in Brazil. If we don't boost, significanlty, efficiency and productivity growth in the service sector, which answers for a big part of the Brazilian economy, the growth is pulled only by the agribusiness and materials sector.
The Brazilian service sector depends a mix of:
people (with education and who grew up unused to failure)
technology (cheap and with educated people to make use of it)
government facilitation (des-buraucratization)
The three of them are lacing. Pople used to failure can't see a different way of doing things in a better way. They don't know what a better way is.
You can overwhelm people with cheap technology, but if youstill need a piece of paper wuith foru rubber stamps, a phococopy of electrciity bill to prove the address you're giving is true, Brazil is DOA!!!
Third, we look to industry: as long as Brazil keeps their labor law, which was copied from the Carta del Lavoro of Mussolini, plemented by a fascist dictator and embraced like the Quram by the local Shiites that controls labor in Brazil we are Fucked. With a Capital F of course.
We surely world beaten in food and non-food agriculturals, but that will e it. 2.5% growth tops. If agribusiness goes down, there's nothing to take the slack.
OECD: Brazil's economy relies significantly on education
MENAFN - 11/12/2006
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a survey of the Brazilian economy, that the future of the country's economy relies exclusively on education to achieve major productivity gains, AFP reported.
The survey said that the shortage of human capital is the single most important obstacle to productivity growth, and that poor education indicators were more a problem of educational quality rather than of funding.
The OECD's survey said that Brazil's potential for growth without overheating was now rather low at about 3.0-3.5 percent per year. It added that Brazil had to pursue reforms to do about five points better, implying growth of 8.0 percent, to catch up in the next quarter of a century.
|
