I highly doubt the discrepancy between the number of sunni's and the number of shi'a can qaulify or disqualify weather or not they have a civil war going on there.
Then I guess when the Sybionese Liberation Army (Patty Hearst), or the Weatherman were conducting their spree of terrorist attacks, the MSM should have reported it as a "civil war"??
Numbers DO matter DTK. Which is why the Sunni Iraqis will never stand a chance of regaining power so long as the Shi'a have access to weapons and maintain control over the military. The Sunnis were only able to obtain/maintain power with the assistance of the Soviets and control over oil revenues. Whoever controls the spice.. err.. oil, controls the country.
But I DO fear this conflict spreading across borders and Sunni Arabs turning this into a civil war between Sunni Arabs and Shi'a Arabs, which would ultimately force the Shi'a to grant further influence to Persian Iran.
On another note, however, we see that Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani is preparing another political defeat against the young upstart, Muqtada Al-Sadr. He has voiced his support for the replacement of Prime Minister Al-Maliki, who has depended upon the support of MAS and his Mahdi Army. This is going to increase the Shi'a Arab resistance to MAS and his attempt to become a state within a state (ala Hizbullah's Nasrallah). Al-Sistani's word still contains a tremendous amount of weight amongst Shi'ites in Iraq (as we saw back in April, 2004).
chron.com
This is something to really watch. The Sunnis are pressing the government to deal with MAS's Mahdi army (and it's influence in the government, military, and police). The Salafists (reactionary Sunnis) who support Al Qai'da in Iraq have specifically targeted the Mahdi army as a heretical threat that must be eliminated, for fear that MAS will seek to destroy them. Thus, the Mahdi army must be dismantled in order for the Sunni tribal leaders to fully withdraw support from Al-Qai'da/Ansar Al Sunnah terrorist groups.
In addition, MAS's primary patron is an Iranian Grand Ayatollah Kazem Al-Haeri, a person who's activities has been disgracefully under-reported in the MSM. He seeks, IMO, to replace Al-Sistani and has been using MAS, and his Mahdi Army, to pave the way to power in Najaf and Karbala.
Hawk |
