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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP
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To: DMaA who wrote (108)9/29/1997 8:05:00 PM
From: Tim Bagwell   of 5853
 
David, this is one I often hear mentioned (From "Fiber Keeps Its Promise")

" Within 10 years, the all-optical network will be thousands of times more cost-effective than electronic networks. Just as the electron rules in computers, the photon will rule the waves of communication."

Mr. Guilder misses a crucial physical roadblock here. The optics are nothing without the electronics to drive them. Many people seem to have the possibly mistaken notion that the AON will have some magical role to play in "unlimited" bandwidth. A true AON is decades away. All you have to do is look around and see how many large companies are investing in AON. It's a subject for research only.

The fact is that the infrastructure that is going in today will have to last for 10 years. Changes this massive take that long to make happen and any new technologies that come along will typically take that long to reach maturation.
Just look at the EDFA and how long it has taken to become cost effective. That one technology is nearly 10 years old and it is just now being deployed in large numbers.

Electronics will ultimately limit bandwidth for as long as these predictions are meaningful. Beyond that, noone knows what breakthroughs will appear.

Just my own opinion FWIW.

Tim
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