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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: kris b who wrote (75331)12/11/2006 7:47:42 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
I'm curious about your take on the article.

I am sorry but I don't have enough experience to comment. I watch Kondratieff theory but I am not sure whether it is going to work.

It will work, but timing it precisely is very difficult.
Prechter was off by 20+ years which is really sad.
He should NOT have been off by 20 years since his predictions would have had us going straight from hyperinflation (the stagflation period of the 70's - 80's) to deflation. Major WRONG.

Nor does Prechter seem to understand that gold is likely to rise in deflation. (not yet proven but likely wrong).

This is where I happen to agree with John Vosilla ... watch what is happening NOW.

Those that were betting on a Nascrash in 1998 were correct so to speak, but wiped out. Same thing for those betting agaisnt homebuilders too early.

On the other hand some seem far too willing to taunt shorts on stocks while conveniently overlooking a couple of things

1) Many shorting stocks were also long gold and silver
2) Hardly anyone buy a few hard core deflationists were right about treasuries

Finally, no matter how many times one points out that a K-cycle is 18-24 years some expect perfection in predicting the beginning of a new phase.

It is simply impossible. On this John is correct. Watch the charts. But... One must also consider timeframes! Is John a day trader, a week trader, a very long term trend trader?

There is no correct answer here as to what is correct, and it is damn easy for those with a short term views to mock those with a long term view. ORK takes this BS every day even though he is doing fantastically well.

So I am tired of this crap.
John is right about some things
ORK is right about some things
I am right about some things

I am really very pissed at people attempting to put words into my mouth and or equate me to Prechter and or claim I was a bear in 1998 or that claim I said "inflation causes inflation".

These pissing matches and grudges and verbal attacks and especially putting words into people's mouths that were simply NEVER said, are exactly why some of the best posters have left SI.

Mish

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