Tuck, This one hurts!Luckily I had followed a basic rule of taking some off the table earlier in the year when it had the big pop on Bayer news. With that said, I still took a major blow considering I still held a 20% position from my original position.
When I saw the news yesterday I thought at first it was a hoax, considering the Phase II data for both indications. How in the heck can opening a catheter data change so drastically from Phase II. As for the PAO indication I've alway had a concern about hemmorage issues, but considering no safety issues had been raised by the safety board and NUVO was talking as late as two weeks ago that they would be starting the stroke trials...everything was a go in this area. Strangely, and now with hindsight, I couldn't figure out why they were not releasing this Phase III data at the ASH conference and only did a rehash of rNAPc2 data in Orlando.
In listening to the CC yesterday, I didn't hear one positive word about Alfimepase. Okay! No cranial bleeding issues, but still there were obvious bleeding events that hadn't shown up before in the trials. There is no doubt in my mind that Bayer will eventually walk away from their deal with NUVO. How can they revise the delivery mode? What does the catheter results say about the drug's ability to dissolve in a timely basis a clot as compared to one embedded in your leg? If it can't do the simple, why expect it to do the hard one?
rNAPc2..all along I've had reservations in the original indication, however, the potential in the colorectal area "could" be another issue.But we are talking huge amounts to fund these trials and at this point no partnerships formed. Maybe yesterday's news will change the approach and willingness to cut a deal.
To me the question is...they have $150M in the bank..should they direct everything towards NU206 and Archmex alliance...to me decisions have to be made, and made sooner than later. I think the future of Alfimepase will be decided quickly, but at this point NUVO is dead money unless someone takes them out. They will be getting a bargain and $150M..
And you can bet that Dr. Love will never use the words "Holy Grail" two weeks before he announces a disaster with a Phase III drug. |
