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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs

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To: ahhaha who wrote (8736)	12/14/2006 11:09:06 AM
From: CapitalistHogg™	Read Replies (1) of 24758

No indication of a distribution. Totally agree. In fact in this particular situation I've never seen it happen, I'm just trying to figure out every potential risk. How do you know? Only the executing B/D knows and they don't disclose that. The only 100k order executed on the 8th was a market order wash at 14:49:21, 105,000 @ 17.10 0+ chgo Because every other set up would have cost money. Check out the 12.50 calls/puts DHQ AV & DHQ MV at the same time...approximately 1000 of each. The biggest challenge is to execute the position without ending up with a paltry spread which is usually what happens. You might be able to do it favorably from time to time, but to do it regularly, you have to be on the floor. This is what I'm trying to understand. I'm just a little dog with an internet connect and a few nickles to rub together. What if the stock starts moving fast? Hide in a priori? How about if the stock rises to 35 in ten minutes and you have to post 500Gs maintenance? Wouldn't the long calls protect you? If it does rise to 35 it will only be after the 'event' and then the premiums will plummet to intrinsic value. Hide in a priori? I don't know what that is. Nobody knows where anything is going. Exactly. But what I do know is that the Phase III trial results are going to be released before my January expiry so everything else being equal I should be able to pocket the difference of .43 cents by letting everything expire. If it goes to 35 on that date or zero it shouldn't matter, because the puts are WAY too expensive vs. the calls and the common. It is why I'm so determined that this set up is PERFECT. Since nothing is to good too be true I'm looking for the holes in my logic. The only caveats that I see is that I have to be on the floor to make this risk free and the fact that the stock is hard to borrow. The only risk that I can see is that the 'event' does not go off before January expiry, the probability is there but IMO unlikely.

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