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Geopolitical Diary: Russia's Plans for Iran
The director of Russia's state nuclear fuel exporting firm, Atomstroyexport, announced on Tuesday that his company will begin preparing to transport Russian-fabricated nuclear fuel to Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant -- which was also built by the Russians -- in January 2007. He estimated that Bushehr will become operational approximately six months after the fuel arrives in March.
The statement raised heckles throughout the West, where governments -- particularly those of the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- are attempting to slow and, if possible, stop Iranian efforts to launch a nuclear program. And since sanctioning Iran for its nuclear amibitions is the only headline item on the U.N. Security Council's to-do list, international diplomacy seems firmly on track for a train wreck.
But the picture is not nearly as clear-cut as it seems, and no player's role is murkier than that of Russia.
Yes, the Russians are constructing the Bushehr facility and making a pretty penny for doing so; yes, they are contractually committed to supplying Bushehr with Russian-fabricated nuclear fuel; and yes, in order to protect these contracts and their political influence in Iran they have threatened to veto any U.N. resolution that enacts strict sanctions against the country, particularly if those sanctions mention the Bushehr project.
But that hardly means they are enthused about the idea of Iran possessing a robust nuclear program. Russia's interests are simply better served by keeping the project in limbo.
An operational Bushehr would drastically reduce Russia's options and influence, both with the West and with Iran. Once Bushehr goes online and the Russians collect their payment, the West will no longer see Russia as an integral player in the international conflict because Moscow's commercial obligations to Tehran will have been fulfilled. Additionally, the West will not look kindly on any Russian steps to help Iran operationalize its nuclear program.
Moreover, buried in the Russian fuel supply contract is a clause that requires all spent nuclear fuel from Bushehr (which contains plutonium) to be repatriated to Russia. There is little to no doubt that Iran's nuclear agenda is not limited to civilian energy purposes. Should Iran divert such material to a weapons program, Russia would know immediately. In that case, not only would Russia have become a major contributor to the Iranian nuclear project, but it also would be shouldered with the responsibility of restraining a soon-to-be nuclear Iran.
However, so long as Bushehr is not yet operational -- or even better, nearly operational -- the picture is starkly different. The West needs Russia to use its influence over Iran to bring the country to the nuclear negotiating table. Iran needs Russia to use its influence at the U.N. Security Council to shield it from sanctions. Should Bushehr become an operational reality, those needs, and the influence that goes with them, will disappear.
Russia likes to insert itself into issues that let it meddle with U.S. interests, and the Middle East makes for a good playing field. The Iranian nuclear controversy allowed Moscow to carve out a place for itself at the table and assume the role of either spoiler or facilitator, depending on Russian interests. After gaining entry into the World Trade Organization in November, Russia began to soften its stance on sanctions and has now come up with a new draft that shows some promise of surviving a Security Council vote. (The draft conveniently leaves the Bushehr project out of the sanctions package.) At the same time, Russia has been careful not to alienate its friends in Tehran; it has repeated its promises of nuclear fuel shipments while assuring the Iranians that it will make sure any Security Council resolution on sanctions is watered down. Even though such weakened sanctions would hold little significance and be almost impossible to enforce, they would allow the United States to signal to Iran that the nuclear issue will not be ignored while the world watches Iraq.
In the end, however, Russia knows the limits of its influence over Iran; Moscow can best manage its position by leaving the Iranians -- and Bushehr -- hanging.
The only remaining question is: How long can Russia milk this?
The answer is: Longer than one might think. The original deal to build Bushehr dates back to 1995. The project was scheduled to be completed in 1999, and even the Russians have quietly admitted that the reactor core has been ready since late 2004. But because Russia has always based its decisions on politics rather than on reality, the reactor's unveiling might still be a long time coming.
Situation Reports
1252 GMT -- PHILIPPINES -- The Philippine government postponed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit on the island of Cebu partly because its security forces were unable to disrupt a terrorism plot that may have included a car bomb attack against a major Philippine city in order to embarrass the government in Manila, The Associated Press reported Dec. 13, citing a security official.
1247 GMT -- UNITED STATES -- The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff plan to provide a strategic assessment of the war in Iraq to President George W. Bush on Dec. 13, the Los Angeles Times reported Dec. 13. The military officials will advise a larger build-up of U.S. troops, renewed offensives against Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr and his militia as well as against Sunnis in Anbar province, and an increase in aid for job creation programs, the newspaper said.
1241 GMT -- JAPAN -- The Japanese government plans to project Japan's inflation-adjusted real economic growth at 2 percent for fiscal year 2007, Kyodo news reported Dec. 13, citing Japanese government sources.
1233 GMT -- RUSSIA, INDIA -- Russia and India have signed a $850 million deal for Moscow to upgrade old versions of India's MiG-29 fighters with new avionics and engine packages, Press Trust of India reported Dec. 13.
1226 GMT -- CHINA -- China considers peaceful civilian nuclear energy cooperation beneficial to the maintenance of nuclear nonproliferation, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman told Press Trust of India when asked to comment on U.S. congressional approval of the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, Press Trust reported Dec. 13. China had previously said the civilian nuclear deal between the United States and India would wreck the Nonproliferation Treaty regime.
1220 GMT -- UNITED NATIONS -- Russia canceled talks on Iranian nuclear sanctions late Dec. 12 because the United States raised the issue of a jailed Belarusian politician during a closed-door U.N. Security Council session on Cote d'Ivoire and Lebanon, Russian diplomats said.>> |
