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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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From: anializer12/15/2006 3:07:35 PM
   of 78666
 
Added some LRCX today. Custom charts not included in post.

From a technical perspective this looks very good.
On chart 1, the 10 and 30 day moving averages of relative strength as compared to the Nasdaq and the S and P are converging, whereas the the 10 and 30 day moving averages of price have also converged.

On the chart number 2, we can see clearly that the 14 day time segmented volume indicator ( blue line - middle window) is in a position below the zero line and turning up. Usually that position below the zero line marks good entry points. In the lower window, the yellow line representing moneystream has not given up and is continuing to progress.

The stock has some nice characteristics, selling at about 1/2 the PE of the group in general, with a solid growth rate, a huge ROE, and a low debt to equity ratio. Seems to be all in place. Hey, if old lumbering Microsoft can hit new highs, this one can bust upside big if we get some decent market currents going forward.

finance.yahoo.com

Growth Est LRCX Industry Sector S&P 500
Current Qtr. 101.8% 4.7% 1.1% N/A
Next Qtr. 72.3% 12.4% 18.9% N/A
This Year 77.7% 16.7% 12.7% N/A


Analyst estimates have gone up significantly over the past 90 days

EPS Trends Current Qtr
Dec-06 Next Qtr
Mar-07 Current Year
Jun-07 Next Year
Jun-08
Current Estimate 1.11 1.12 4.46 3.79
7 Days Ago 1.11 1.12 4.46 3.79
30 Days Ago 1.11 1.12 4.45 3.79
60 Days Ago 1.10 1.11 4.46 3.80
90 Days Ago 1.03 0.89 3.77 3.36

I'm usually not normally a buyer of techs, they whip around too much for my nerves. But this one has been powering ahead at all time highs, and has just completed a decent little pullback. A small leveraged speculation might have some merit here. Seems to be all in place.

At the moment both the put/call ratio and VIX are short term negative, but a good little scary bout of profit taking could bring those two sentiment indicators back into neutral quickly.

Only one caveat to all this analysis. It could also suddenley plunge 5 points in a day LOL.
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