>re:"Intel has an 85% share, so the upside is not so great"
Here are the problems with this conclusion from this true statement:
1. It fails to take into account that if the total market doubles, so will Intel's sales. Your post from which this was taken analyizes profit potential from a static total market based on one vendor gaining/losing share. As China, India, Japan get PCs in large number, plus as every PC in the US is replaced about every 3-4 years, the market size is not yet static. I think it is still true that only about 35% of all PCs are even Pentiums (or equivalent). You'd be amazed at how many 386s/486s still in use. And Merced is coming, which will obsolete the Pentiums (although it may take a few years).
2. Intel has 85% of what market ? Answer: Desktop PCs (and notebooks). Not servers. Not Mainframes. Not mid-range computers (AS-400's and similar). Not video games. Not even workstations. The 85% may stay constant, but with higher speed P IIs and Merceds, these OTHER MARKETS will succumb to Wintel.
So, I think, there is still substantial room left for Intel to grow. Not to even mention non-CPU businesses (chip sets, motherboards, networking, Flash memory, graphics chips, software, investments in a couple of hundred other companies, etc.) |
