<I can't wait to get my hands on the Q4 Flow of Funds>
Great question, let's see if a discussion gets going here on this. But I suspect not as this board's quality has really fallen of late, and I've about had it. And if this continues to be the case, would you mind commenting at my blog, and we can just move it over there?
-I suspect that consumer credit (Kasriel chart 2 and 10)is now hanging tough, given the mini-refi boomlet into fixed rate mortgages. Some people are being bailed out of dire trouble as a result.
-Foreign investment, Kasriel's chart 7, is also still running hot, just don't think that's changed. 6% of GDP just blows my mind, it's a big reason why the bust didn't happen in 2006, and made it a long year for bears. If you'd asked me in January, 2006 if foreigners would have lent that kind of money at these absurd interest rates and especially in the housing agency market, I would have said no way. Foreigners hold a friggin astonishing amount of Old Maid Cards, including to declining housing collateral. They are going to get buried.
-Chart 11 is hard to judge because the Bully class has actually strengthened (stock market rally), and the Gini Coefficient has worsened.
-Chart 14 has to be worse, because another quarter of resets, and higher debt load is in. Chart 13 even more so, because of declining housing values.
Basically the story of the 4Q is deteriorating assets for most consumers, but little change in credit growth because of relentless foreign subsidies. Actual credit conditions are getting steadily worse, but the massive foreign subsidy has largely trumped it so far. |
