Bush ready to send more troops to Iraq
By Toby Harnden in Washington
Last Updated: 1:42am GMT 16/12/2006
President George W Bush is poised to increase troop numbers in Iraq as part of a dramatic new strategy designed to regain control of Baghdad and suffocate the Sunni insurgency.
Sending more soldiers and marines to Iraq would infuriate Democrats and be a slap in the face to James Baker, the former US secretary of state who co-authored the independent Iraq Study Group report, which recommended a draw down of all combat forces by early 2008.
But an advisor involved in White House discussions said of Mr Bush: "This is the direction he's moving in. He understands we have to win and to do that requires more troops."
Mr Bush is debating with his aides and outside advisors how many extra troops there should be and for what period. His options range from a temporary "surge" of 20,000 troops to a "big push" involving more than 50,000.
A version of the "big push" plan – also known as the "double-down gamble" option – is supported by Senator John McCain, who is fast becoming the Republican establishment's choice for the 2008 presidential nomination.
Visiting Baghdad this week, Mr McCain described the situation as "very, very serious" and said he would favour an increase of 15,000 to 30,000 troops.
Details of the type of plan that Mr Bush, who is due to announce a new Iraq policy next month, now appears to be favouring were released this week by the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank with close ties to the White House. A paper entitled "Choosing Victory" was the result of a study by 21 scholars and retired officers.( edit: for those that were on goofy pills thinking the Thug Bush and his Thuggee NeoCons were history as a result the Baker/ Herr Kissinger Right Wing realisismos cavalry charge, now may start waking up. Choosing Victory--yup, Bush is sure running to daddy and Baker and gang--yup-- like sure--- Max)
Mr Baker and his team avoided the term "victory". But after meeting Pentagon generals this week, Mr Bush said pointedly: "I've heard some ideas that would lead to defeat. I reject those ideas." He has ruled out claims he is searching for a "graceful exit".
The most senior retired officer in the AEI study was General Jack Keane, a former US Army vice-chief of staff and influential member of the Pentagon's Defence Policy Board. He was among a group of five retired officers and academics who met Mr Bush at the White House on Wednesday.
Another of the five was Stephen Biddle, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is an advocate of the "big push" option and told The Daily Telegraph: "My gut tells me big – 30,000 to 50,000 or more troops.
"If you are not prepared have a major, sustained increase [in troops] then the appropriate response is to get out as soon as it is militarily and logistically feasible.
"To squander lives in a long draw down simply to put a fig leaf over defeat is unsustainable."
The AEI report, co-authored with Frederick Kagan, formerly on the staff of the West Point military academy, proposed increasing troop strength by seven combat brigades or about 25,000 troops.
This would be achieved by extending by several months the tours of troops already in Iraq and sending in other troops earlier than they were due to deploy.
Five new brigades would be stationed in Baghdad to carry out "clear and hold" operations from small outposts in mixed Sunni-Shia areas.
The US mission would switch from building up Iraqi forces and fighting the enemy to providing security for the Iraqi people. The aim would be to stifle the Sunni insurgency while postponing tackling Shia militias and death squads.
At the same time, there would be a major economic reconstruction plan with the goal of increasing the confidence of Iraqis in their government's ability to improve their lives.
Two marine regimental combat teams, equivalent to US army brigades, would be sent to Anbar province to prevent insurgents melting away from Baghdad and re-basing there.
"The policy we have now has not succeeded," said Gen Keane. "It has failed. And if we want success you have to put the resources in the hands of the commanders and let them handle it.
"In every successful counter-insurgency, the basis for success has always been protecting the people."
Mr Biddle said a large troop increase would entail "great sacrifice" for Americans and tough choices for Mr Bush, who might have to abandon elements of his domestic agenda, but the president appeared to be leaning towards this.
"His public statements have all been consistent with a double-down, big push, try-real-hard option to make one last try to get this right."
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