I have predicted every presidential race since 1976 when as a teenager I told my friend's parents, who were bigshot Republicans, that I had read an article about Jimmy Carter, a peanut farmer from Georgia, and I believed he was going to be president. They'd never even heard of him. But I was right.
In 1991, I saw Clinton on C-SPAN long before the first caucus or primary. I saw he sounded just like some of the Methodist ministers my cousins in Southern Illinois grew up putting their faith in. I predicted right there he'd be not only the nominee but president.
Those are my best calls. I also called Kerry as our nominee, and I called that it would come down to Ohio and maybe 2-3 other states, which it did. I never said Kerry would definitely win, I said he COULD win, and in fact if all the votes had been counted honestly, maybe he DID win. If not he came very close.
This coming year I predict Gore will get it if he enters the race, but if he doesn't it is a toss-up with Kerry as one of the top 3 contenders, and very possibly the nominee. If Kerry is the only white male amongst the top three he will get it. Or he will beat again Edwards it it comes to that. If Gore or Kerry get it, I believe they will win in November. If HIllary or Obama get it, I believe they will lose. Edwards is a toss-up, but I don't think he'll get nominated.
My analysis makes perfect sense. Early on, Democrats are always looking for the new face and often get behind a risky liberal candidate like Obama. But as time goes on common sense dictates a more conservative choice. Gore is the obvious pick, but he may not run, and if he doesn't Kerry becomes the next most logical.
Another thing to remember about Kerry. McCain is on record as blasting the smearvets as dishonorable liars. So none of those smears can be used if McCain is the nominee, and he likely will be, though Romney may give him a run for his money.
The worst candidate in the race? Newt Gingrich. How dare he run after calling for WWIII and all his other nonsense. |
